Oscar Predictions: Best Animated Feature

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominee from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Oscar Nomination Thoughts
Introduction & Documentary Feature
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Cinematography
Editing
Live-Action, Animated, and Documentary Short
Song & Score

Glossary:
Annie - Awards for Animation
Eddie -  American Cinema Editors Award
PGA - Producers Guild of America Award
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association  Award

The animated feature award is one of the most precursor rich categories for the Oscars. That doesn't necessarily mean there's a lot to debate though. All the precursor awards have nominated the eventual Oscar winner every year since they've been around. That's pretty impressive. As far as matching winners go, they are all pretty good too. The Annies are 10/15. The PGA is 7/11. The BAFTA award has been 9/10. Golden Globes 8/10. Eddy Award 6/7. If you squint real hard and kind of tilt your head to the left, a couple years have been a little hard to predict. Most of the time, this award is one of the biggest locks of the night.

Zootopia
Annie - Animated Feature - Winner
PGA - Animated Feature - Winner
BAFTA - Animated Feature - Nominee
Golden Globe - Animated Feature - Winner
Eddie - Edited Animated Feature - Winner
All six times a film has won at least 4 of the precursor awards, it has won the Oscar. It's hard to argue with that stat. The BAFTA loss is a little worrisome, but not enough to keep me up at night.

Kubo and the Two Strings
Annie - Animated Feature - Nominee
PGA - Animated Feature - Nominee
BAFTA - Animated Feature - Winner
Golden Globe - Animated Feature - Nominee
Eddie - Edited Animated Feature - Nominee
Here's a fun fact: the biggest upset ever in the category was when Happy Feet beat out Cars in 2006 after Cars won the Annie Award, the PGA Award, and the Golden Globe*. The one award that Happy Feet did win? The BAFTA.

*There was no ACE award for animation yet.

Moana
Annie - Animated Feature - Nominee
PGA - Animated Feature - Nominee
BAFTA - Animated Feature - Nominee
Golden Globe - Animated Feature - Nominee
Eddie - Edited Animated Feature - Nominee
This is the 16th year for the Oscar for Best Animated Feature. In the first 15 years, a Disney film has won all but three times and hasn't lost since 2006. There's a strong argument to be made that Moana, not Kubo, should be my second most likely to win. I just don't see anything to sway me to pick Moana over Zootopia.

My Life as a Zucchini
Golden Globe - Animated Feature - Nominee
The Animated Feature Oscar is not an award for upsets. It's one of the categories in which studio-backing matters the most (I point again to Disney's dominance). But, with the Globe nomination, this is the slightly more likely of the nominees that don't stand a chance.

The Red Turtle
I actually really want to see this movie. There are no signs that it's gaining any momentum in the late stages of this Oscar race though.