Oscar Predictions: Post Mortem

The Oscars are over now. I should really get to bed, but I've got too much Coke, cookies, and queso in me to fall asleep. I might as well look at how I did. It wasn't a banner year. I only got 18/24 correct. I wasn't far off on the others, so I don't feel too bad. I feel like digging in a little more to figure out where I looked smart, where I looked stupid, where it was smart to be a joiner, and where I just plain got lucky.

Smart Picks
Best Picture: Birdman -People started to overthink the power of the sleepers. This was decided when it won the PGA, SAG, and DGA.
Best Director: Birdman - Critics are not the same as Oscar voters. People forget this.
Best Director: Eddie Redmayne - He won everything leading up to this. I'm only calling this a "smart" pick because I didn't blink at the last second thinking they'd pull a Training Day.
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game - Whiplash made it interesting, but I stuck with what looked likely.
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar - Dawn deserved it, but Rise losing to Hugo in 2011 was a big clue.

Stupid Picks
Best Original Screenplay: Birdman - It was my second pick, but I didn't think Birdman would be so dominant.
Best Film Editing: Whiplash - I was blinded by 12 years of footage.
Best Original Score: The Grand Budapest Hotel - I guessed in a category that generally isn't all that predictable.
Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash - I originally picked this and changed it at the last minute.The Audio Guild fucked with my head. Lesson learned.
Best Animated Feature: Big Hero 6 - The Academy voters only have eyes for Disney. Lesson learned.
Best Foreign Film: Ida - As time passed, Ida looked better and better. I got stubborn with my Leviathan pick.

Consensus Picks
Best Actress: Julianne Moore
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette
The three  biggest locks of the night...?

Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest HotelThese three were bundled together from the start.


Best Cinematography: Birdman - This is the thing that Birdman will be most studied for years down the line.
Best Original Song: Selma - As soon as Selma was ignored for the big awards, this one was decided.

Best Sound Editing: American Sniper - The category might as well be called "Outstanding Sound Editing for a War Movie".
Best Documentary Feature: Citezenfour - Wikileaks is too sexy a topic to not award.


Lucky Guess
Best Documentary Short: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Best Animated Short: Feast
Beast Live Action Short: The Phone Call
I used the same logic for these categories last year and did very poorly.