Oscar Predictions: Best Lead Actress

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Best Production Design
Best Original Score and Original Song
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Costume Design
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe Award - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
SAG Award - Screen Actors Guild Award

This one is pretty set in stone by now and good for them: I like Julianne Moore.

Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
BAFTA - Lead Actress - Winner
SAG - Lead Actress - Winner
Golden Globe - Lead Actress - Winner
Wait, don't tell me, you've heard this one before, in the last 20 years, the five times an actress has swept the BAFTA, SAG, and Globe, she also got the Oscar. I swear, I'm not trying to be repetitive.

Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
BAFTA - Lead Actress - Nominee
SAG - Lead Actress - Nominee
Golden Globe - Lead Actress - Nominee
There was a point in the season when "Two time Oscar Winner Reese Witherspoon" was looking like a lock. She's actually better in Wild than Walk the Line, but each year is different.

Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
BAFTA - Lead Actress - Nominee
SAG - Lead Actress - Nominee
Golden Globe - Lead Actress - Nominee
Redmayne is getting the awards for this, which is a shame, because Jones is so damn good in this. Moore has a stranglehold on this award though.

Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
BAFTA - Lead Actress - Nominee
SAG - Lead Actress - Nominee
Golden Globe - Lead Actress - Nominee
It's still baffling to think that this is the only nomination for Gone Girl. However, Pike is worthy of it.

Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)
There is too much stacked against her to win. Then again, she wasn't exactly the favorite when she won for La Vie en Rose.