Oscar Predctions: Best Director

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Best Production Design
Best Original Score and Original Song
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Costume Design
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Lead Actress
Best Lead Actor

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe Award - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
DGA Award - Director's Guild of America

Without a Director's Guild nomination, you aren't going to win. Without a DGA win, you are probably not going to win. This is a tough call though.

Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman)
DGA - Director - Winner
BAFTA - Director - Nominee
Golden Globe - Director - Nominee
Inarritu won the DGA award for Birdman. You know who else won that award? 16 of the last 20 winners of the Oscar. Of those four, two of the DGAs were won by movies that weren't nominated for the Oscar (Apollo 13, Argo), one still feels like a coin toss over a decade later (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon won the DGA and lost the Oscar to Traffic), and that last one is Chicago beating eventual Oscar winner The Pianist, which is credit to a strong final play in the much longer 2002 Oscar season. In other words, until proven otherwise, I'm going to have to pick Birdman.

Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
DGA - Director - Nominee
BAFTA - Director - Winner
Golden Globe - Director - Winner
I mentioned that the Traffic/Crouching Tiger year was a toss up. This year feels really similar to that. There are two nominees who are both due an Oscar for both this year's offerings and their overall catalog. Linklater has the two less important precursor wins, but it's still two wins. It's not an upset if he wins, only a slightly less expected certainty.

Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
DGA - Director - Nominee
BAFTA - Director - Nominee
Golden Globe - Director - Nominee
Anderson has climbed the Oscar ladder slowly, finally getting his director nomination this year. He's probably a movie or two away still for the right mix of great movie + industry recognition imperative to lead to a win.

Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
DGA - Director - Nominee
He wasn't even recognized by the BAFTAs. When that happens for a British movie I worry.

Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
I'm not even going to bother tracking numbers on this one. If no one other than the Oscars recognize you, you aren't going to win this one.