Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Acress

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Best Production Design
Best Original Score and Original Song
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Costume Design
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe Award - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
SAG Award - Screen Actors Guild Award

In most cases, but the time the Oscars roll around, we know who the acting winners are. As it turns out, Hollywood is image obsessed (who knew?). While the behind the camera people are subject to voter whims, the actors stay front and center, accepting awards the whole time. By the end of February, even with a couple stumbles, we know where this is going. As you'll see with Supporting Actress, that is very much the case in 2015.

Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) 
BAFTA - Supporting Actress - Winner
SAG - Supporting Acress - Winner
Golden Globes - Supporting Actress - Winner
Let's see. She's won everything so far. The five times that's happened in the last two decades, the Oscar then followed suit. This is an easy one.

Emma Stone (Birdman)
BAFTA - Supporting Actress - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Acress - Nominee
Golden Globes - Supporting Actress - Nominee
Birdman is looking like the big winner overall. If that happens, perhaps Stone gets swept up with it. Also, they do kind of owe her for ignoring Easy A.

Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
BAFTA - Supporting Actress - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Acress - Nominee
Golden Globes - Supporting Actress - Nominee
Knightley has never been better than she was in this but the cards are too stacked against her this time.

Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
SAG - Supporting Acress - Nominee
Golden Globes - Supporting Actress - Nominee
The nomination for Streep is nearly a requirement by now. She needs another decade of nominations before catching Katherine Hepburn though with a fourth win.

Laura Dern (Wild)
The last time someone pulled off an acting Oscar win despite no other nominations was Marcia Gay Harden for Pollack in 2000 and there was no consensus front runner that year.