Oscar Predictions: Best Visual Effects

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
VES Awards - The Visual Effects Guild's awards.

Visual Effects is normally one of the laziest awards of the night. Instead of awarding something that necessarily represents the best that Visual Effects has to offer for the year, it tends to go to the most accomplished nominee with a Best Picture nomination. That's how Hugo gets a win in 2011 despite no love from the guild or BAFTAs. In fact, the last winner to not have a best picture nomination was 2007's The Golden Compass. That makes this year exciting. None of the nominees are nominated for best picture. It's a collection of blockbusters with great effects. Of course, it makes picking a winner a little harder, but I'm up to the challenge.

Interstellar
Visual Effect Society - Visual Effects - Nominee
BAFTA - Visual Effects - Winner
Guild or BAFTA. That's the best way to make an informed choice here. In the twelve years that the Visual Effects Society has been giving out awards, the BAFTAs have been slightly more reliable. Every Oscar winner in that time was at least nominated by the BAFTA and ten of the Oscar winners also won the BAFTA. That's some of the better odds you'll find for a technical award. Also, it can't hurt that the last time a Christopher Nolan movie won the BAFTA (2010's Inception) it did end up winning the Oscar too (although Inception was a Best Picture Nominee).

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Visual Effect Society - Visual Effects - Winner
BAFTA - Visual Effects - Nominee
The Visual Effects Society isn't far behind the BAFTAs, picking 9 of the last 12 winners. That's enough to make it a little less reliable though. Besides, Rise of the Planet of the Apes won in 2011 when Oscar winner Hugo wasn't even nominated, so there's a history of the Apes movies playing better with the guild than the Oscars.

Guardians of the Galaxy
Visual Effect Society - Visual Effects - Nominee
BAFTA - Visual Effects - Nominee
It's the only other double nominee in the field.

X-Men: Days of Future Past
BAFTA - Visual Effects - Nominee
The BAFTA nomination keeps it out of last. The last of the VES nominations keeps it out of contention.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier
No other nominations = no chance in hell. In a perfect world it has a chance though.