I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Best Production Design
Best Original Score and Original Song
Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
There isn't a lot of precedence with the makeup award. The Hollywood Makeup & Hairstyling Guild took a break on giving out awards for a while, so the is on the second year of it. Based on last year, there's not much to observer other than the winner had at least a nomination across the four awards. Then there's the BAFTA award, which has only even nominated the Oscar winner 14 times in 20 years. That's not enough to indicate much.
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Hollywood Makeup & Hairstyling Guild - Period Makeup - Winner
Hollywood Makeup & Hairstyling Guild - Period Hair - Winner
BAFTA - Makeup & Hairstyling - Winner
Budapest has won everything it's been nominated for in Makeup and Hairstyling. There's not enough history to call it a lock, but there is enough to call it an upset if it loses.
Guardians of the Galaxy
Hollywood Makeup & Hairstyling Guild - Contemporary Makeup - Winner
Hollywood Makeup & Hairstyling Guild - Contemporary Hair - Nominee
BAFTA - Makeup & Hairstyling - Nominee
Guardians has only gone head to head with Budapest in the BAFTA. The wealth on nominations is encouraging to put it as a possibility to win although not a likelihood.
Foxcatcher
No nominations across the board. Carrell's prosthetic nose doesn't look like it will be enough.
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