Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Oscar Predictions: Best Original Score and Original Song

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Best Production Design

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe Award - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association


Best Original Score

The best you can hope for regarding Original Score is a little guidance from the Golden Globes and BAFTAs but no guarantees. In the last fifteen years, they've each only been marginally reliable even when there's a double winner. There's a number of ways this can go, but I'm not ready to make the bold, statement pick.

The Theory of Everything (Jóhann Jóhannsson)
Golden Globe - Score - Winner
BAFTA - Music - Winner
All the quantifiable support has been for The Theory of Everything's score. I'd be a fool to choose otherwise.

The Imitation Game (Alexandre Desplat)
Golden Globe - Score - Nominee
BAFTA - Music - Nominee
If the double winner doesn't win, might as well go with the double nominee.

Interstellar (Hans Zimmer)
Golden Globe - Score - Nominee
BAFTA - Music - Nominee
The Academy does like Hans Zimmer and the movie's issues are hardly his fault. Everyone votes for this though, not just the music branch, so I'll assume the lack of support for the movie otherwise will hurt it.

The Grand Budapest Hotel (Alexandre Desplat)
It looks like Budapest may be a technical award eating monster and score could come with it.

Mr. Turner (Gary Yershon)
If it couldn't even get a BAFTA nomination, that's worrisome.

Best Original Song

No idea where this is going. The Golden Globes are the only other group with this category and I don't believe their rules on eligibility are as strict. Besides, the winner of the Oscar has only been nominated for a Golden Globe three times in the last decade. A song is almost better off being ignored by the HFPA.

"Glory" (Selma)
Golden Globe - Song - Winner
It's no "Let It Go" but "Glory" looks like it's in a good position. It's a good song and the only other way voters have to award Selma who aren't picking it for Best Picture (see: most).

"Everything is Awesome" (The LEGO Movie)
If any song is poised to spoil "Glory"'s night, it's this. Fresh off a snub for Animated Feature, fans may choose this as alternative recognition.

"I'm Not Gonna Miss You" (Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me)
"Lost Stars" (Begin Again)
"Grateful"  (Beyond the Lights)
I have no idea how to rank these three. They seem equally unlikely and voters are too damn fickle here to guess.

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