Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary Feature

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Eddie - American Cinema Editors Award
PGA Awards - Producers Guild of America Award

I did the shorts yesterday which are a complete toss up. The next least predictable award after those has got to be Documentary Feature. I found three award ceremonies with this category too. There's the Eddie (awarded for Editing specifically but goes back further than any of the other awards), the BAFTA (which has only had this category for three years), and the Producer's Guild (which only goes back seven years for Documentary).  Here's the problem: none of them are all that helpful when predicting the winner at the Oscars. The nominees rarely match up much with the Oscars and the winners agree maybe half the time. This year, the PGA gave the award to Life Itself, which wasn't even nominated.

CITIZENFOUR
Eddie Award - Documentary - Winner
BAFTA - Documentary - Winner
Luckily, there's CITIZENFOUR, the Wikileaks documentary that's been gobbling up the precursor awards. It won the Eddie for editing against limited competition. More impressively, it won the BAFTA which included two other Oscar nominees as well as last years Oscar winner, Twenty Feet from Stardom (due to some weird BAFTA eligibility quirks). Not only does that make this the favorite. It's the overwhelming favorite.

Finding Vivian Mayer
Eddie Award - Documentay - Nominee
BAFTA - Documentary - Nominee
It's hard to pick the next most likely doc. to win, both because neither option has a great chance and each has two precursor nominations. I'm going with Finding Vivian Mayer though on the strength of that Eddie nomination. 11 of the last 16 Oscar winners have also been nominated for an Eddie.

Virunga
PGA - Documentary - Nominee
BAFTA - Documentary - Nominee
Getting a PGA nomination can't hurt, but only 3 of the last 7 Oscar winners have even been nominated by the PGA so it's not indicative of much.

Last Days in Vietnam
I wouldn't read too much into the lack of BAFTA love since it's still a new category for them and three years is hardly enough to finding a pattern. A lack of any nomination though speaks poorly.

The Salt of the Earth
You may be asking yourself why I picked Vietnam over this, given that neither has any other major nominations. If you must know, it's because I like the name of the other documentary better. Make not mistake. Neither is likely to win.