Oscar Predictions Best Supporting Actor

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Best Production Design
Best Original Score and Original Song
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Costume Design
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay
Best Supporting Actress

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe Award - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
SAG Award - Screen Actors Guild Award

Yeah this is another one of those predetermined winners. Short of Duvall, all of them are worthy of the win. There's only one correct choice though.

J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) 
BAFTA - Supporting Actor - Winner
SAG - Supporting Actor - Winner
Golden Globe - Supporting Actor - Winner
If you win those three awards, you get an Oscar too. In the last 20 years, that's been true all five times it's happened going into Oscar night. Technically, the fifth time Benicio del Toro was up for Lead Actor in the SAGs for Traffic. He still won that too, so I think it more than counts.

Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
BAFTA - Supporting Actor - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee
Golden Globe - Supporting Actor - Nominee
This category has been over nearly since Sundance last year. Boyhood looks like the bridesmaid for a lot of categories.

Edward Norton (Birdman)
BAFTA - Supporting Actor - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee
Golden Globe - Supporting Actor - Nominee
He's really good but Simmons has this locked up.

Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
BAFTA - Supporting Actor - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee
Golden Globe - Supporting Actor - Nominee
Seriously, Simmons' win here is the biggest lock of the night.

Robert Duvall (The Judge)
SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee
Golden Globe - Supporting Actor - Nominee
That he was nominated at all means there's some blind support for him out there and that gives me pause. There's no way there's enough of them to get a win though...right?