Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary, Animated, and Live-Action Short

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Annie Awards - Awards for Animation

Naturally, I'll begin with a trio of categories that are as blindly picked as anything: the shorts. There are virtually no precursor awards for these categories. Even the mighty BAFTAs don't branch out enough to cover shorts. In fact, only the Annie Awards recognize shorts and there's rarely any overlap. I couldn't even find a film festival that regularly featured the winners. Since I won't be seeing any of these beforehand (probably), this is where I'm going to most rely on sites like GoldDerby.com and Hitfix to decide.

Best Documentary Short
Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Had The Invisible War won the Oscar for Best Documentary for 2012, I'd call this a slam dunk. Now, I'm left to wonder. Still, it has HBO Documentary Films backing it and visibility can only help in this category.
Our Curse
It's about two parents dealing with a newborn child with an incurable disease. That sounds like Oscar bait to me.
Joanna
Reading the description sounds vague enough that I can't put it higher or lower comfortably.
The Reaper
A guy who works in a slaughterhouse with a relationship with the dead. Sounds a little kooky to me.
White Earth
The descriptions I found of this are pretty bland.

Best Animated Short
Feast
Annie Awards - Best Animated Short Winner
2012's Paperman is the only Annie Award winner to also get the Oscar, so that isn't at all indicative. It certainly doesn't hurt though, and it's hard to not pick the short that has eyes on it, which Feast has thanks to getting put before Big Hero Six. I think that not being original is the main thing that hurt Get a Horse last year and I'd expect the move back to something simple and romantic will pay off for Disney.
The Dam Keeper
Annie Awards - Best Animated Short Nominee
Much like winning, being nominated for the Annie Award doesn't help a short's odds. Again though, it doesn't hurt and it's at least something to go off.
The Bigger Picture
Simply put, the art of this looks better than the remaining nominees.
A Single Life
It's super short (~3min.) and that could pay off with the "too busy to watch the whole thing" voters.
Me and My Moulton
Something's gotta be last.

Best Live Action Short
The Phone Call
This sounds very similar to Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 in Documentary Short. I'm not sure if that will hurt or help. Having former Oscar nominees Sally Hawkins and Jim Broadbent in it must help too. Granted, recognizable faces didn't get The Voorman Problem the win last year.
Aya
At 40 minutes long, supposing voters watch it, it may feel enough like a feature that it could get the votes.
Boogaloo and Graham
As of writing this, it's tied for the best rating of the five shorts on IMDB.
Butter Lamp
A photographer takes pictures of Tibetan nomads in front of assorted backgrounds. This sounds a little experimental for Oscar voters.
Parvaneh
Like Me and My Moulton, something's gotta be last.