I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Best Production Design
Best Original Score and Original Song
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Costume Design
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Glossary:
WGA Award - Writers Guild of America Award
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Best Adapted Screenplay
First of all, the Writer's Guild is pretty useless for picking a winner. Every year, a few key Oscar nominees are ineligible for the WGA award and neuter the impact of a win (If Birdman isn't nominated, then what meaning does a Boyhood win have, for example). I'll still be listing it, but I'm not pulling much examination from it. Then there's the Golden Globes not distinguishing between original and adapted screenplays. That's one less winner and five fewer nominees to credit. The Golden Globes despite not splitting the category, are quite reliable, nominating the Adapted Screenplay Oscar winner 15 of the last 20 years. The BAFTA is even better, recognizing the Oscar winner 17 times in that period. What's tough is that either of the two awards (not both but either) have called the winner correctly only 9 times. That makes this pretty wide open.
WGA - Adapted Screenplay - Winner
BAFTA - Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
Golden Globe - Screenplay - Nominee
This is really a guessing game as the Writers branch likes to recognize unconventional movies in general and isn't so concerned with picking the same winner that everyone else is. I didn't bother tracking the WGA since it would require way more tracking of snubs than I can to find, but the WGA win is a sign of broad support by the writers. The Imitation Game has been nominated by everyone it can and frankly, I think it's bound to win something. This looks like its best chance.
Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
WGA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
This is confusing. Whiplash is an original screenplay. Chazelle wrote the screenplay, the shot a short film that was a scene from the script. This played at Sundance. Then, he shot the rest of the movie. According to the Oscars. and only the Oscars, that makes it an adapted screenplay. Whatever. It just means that all comparisons are meaningless since this was never in direct competition with the other nominees (no Golden Globe nomination).
The Theory of Everything (Anthony McCarten)
(Not eligibile for the WGA Award)
BAFTA - Adapted Screenplay - Winner
The BAFTA win doesn't mean a lot but it does mean something. The lack of WGA eligibility doesn't hurt it's odds. All it means is there's less information to go off. This is also one of those unfair cases of not putting a lot of stock in the BAFTAs awarding a British film. There's a lesser degree of difficulty to that.
American Sniper (Jason Hall)
WGA - Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
BAFTA - Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
This feels like a nomination by default rather than it having a real chance to win.
Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson)
I'm happy to see it nominated. There's almost no chance it wins.
Best Original Screenplay
The Original Screenplay Oscar is normally more predictable than Adapted Screenplay. Despite the lack of original/adapted split, the Golden Globes have nominated the eventual Oscar winner 16 of the last 20 years. The BAFTA is even better, nominating 18 of the last 20 winners. One of the two have awarded the winner 17 times in that span. The WGA ineligibility issues continue to keep this one murky though.
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson, Hugo Guiness)
WGA - Original Screenplay - Winner
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Winner
Golden Globe - Screenplay - Nominee
Even with lesser competition, the WGA win is a good sign. The BAFTA solidifies it. Failing to win the Globe isn't a big deal. Mostly, it feels like Wes Anderson should have a win here by now.
Birdman (Alejandro González Iñárritu & Others)
(Not eligibile for the WGA Award)
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
Golden Globe - Screenplay - Winner
This is sort of a wild card since it wasn't eligible for the WGA. That leaves the BAFTA as the only true head to head for the Original Screenplays which Birdman lost. Besides, this feels more like a Director's and Actor's showcase, doesn't it?
Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
WGA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
Golden Globe - Screenplay - Nominee
It's about time the Linklater wins for writing. A lack of any wins though isn't encouraging. This is one of those that if it did win, it wouldn't feel like a surprise.
Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy)
WGA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
I'd probably pick this, but they haven't put me in the Academy [yet], so I'm going to rely on the fact that the first three will suffocate the chances of the final two nominees.
Foxcatcher (E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman)
WGA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
No Oscar winner here in the last two decades has been snubbed by the BAFTAs and Globes.
No comments:
Post a Comment