Oscar Predictions: Best Foreign Film

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck. 

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe Award - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association

From shorts to documentaries to foreign films. Yeah, I'm getting the tossups out of the way early. There's only two good precursors for this award: the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs. In a rare turn though, the Golden Globes are a little more indicative of what will win. It is the Hollywood Foreign Press Association after all. Yes, 13 of the last 20 Oscar winners have also received a Globe nomination as opposed to only 8 of the last 20 for the BAFTAs. Sadly, Oscar voters didn't make it easy on us by nominating any of these for Best Picture too, which would make short work of this.

Leviathan (Andrey Zvyagintsev; Russia)
Golden Globe - Foreign Film - Winner
BAFTA - Foreign Film - Nominee
Leviathan has the Golden Globe win which is good for picking 9 of the last 20 Oscar winners. That does include picking the last four eventual Oscar winners though. That's what we call momentum.

Ida (Pawel Pawlikowski; Poland)
BAFTA - Foreign Film - Winner
Golden Globe - Foreign Film - Nominee
Weird handling of release dates makes this a little unreliable at times historically, although it doesn't seem to matter much in this year's race. The Cinematography Oscar nomination is nice to have too, as it shows Academy awareness outside the category. What damns this for me though is that in 20 years, the BAFTA winner hasn't gone on to win the Oscar without also winning the Golden Globe, making this a very imbalanced either-or decision.

Tangerines (Zaza Urushadze; Estonia)
Golden Globe - Foreign Film - Nominee
The Globe nomination can't hurt.

Wild Tales (Damián Szifrón; Argentina)
I remember reading a good review for this. That's about it. It's not unheard of for the Academy to go off grid. It hasn't happened since The Secret in Their Eyes in 2009 though.

Timbuktu (Abderrahmane Sissako; Mauritania)
I'm going to go ahead and say that should be happy just to be nominated.