Oscar Predictions: Best Costume Design

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.

I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

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Previously:

Documentary 

Production Design

Original Song and Score   

Film Editing

Cinematography 

Supporting Actor

Supporting Actress 

Animated Feature 

Foreign Film 

Visual Effects

Director  

Lead Actor 

Lead Actress 
Original & Adapted Screenplay 
Best Picture
Sound Editing & Mixing

Glossary:

BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

CDG - Costume Designers Guild Award

This is the worst category to look back my standard 20 years. The more recent the year, the better the precursors are. The BAFTA Award winner also won the Oscar only 10 of the last 20 years, however, it has called 9 of the last 10. The Oscar winner has been nominated for the BAFTA Award 19 of the last 20 years (18 years in a row). Similarly, the CDG award has called only 9 of the last 20 Oscar winners. The CDG have nominated the Oscar winner 16/20 years. Those 16 are the last 16 years in a row though.

The Favourite

BATFA - Costume Design - Winner

CDG - Period Costume Design – Winner

The last 8 times the BAFTA and CDG agreed on a winner, that film also won the Oscar. Given that Academy voters like to award costume dramas* (it’s in the name, after all), The Favourite looks pretty safe.

*Or “costume comedies” but that doesn’t roll of the tongue as easily.

Black Panther

CDG - Fantasy Costume Design – Winner

The design awards are the best place to give an award to Black Panther. I still feel like just getting these nominations is the award for Black Panther, but this is a category where it’s picking up steam. It would certainly deserve the win and fit with the idea that Oscar voters tend to award “most costuming” more than “best costuming”.

Mary Poppins Returns

BATFA - Costume Design - Nominee

CDG - Period Costume Design – Nominee

Certainly, a lot of colorful period costumes in this one.

Mary Queen of Scots

BATFA - Costume Design - Nominee

CDG - Period Costume Design - Nominee

The Favourite is getting the period costume drama vote. Mary Poppins Returns has the Mary vote. It’s hard to see Mary Queen of Scots’ path to victory.

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BATFA - Costume Design - Nominee

By my count, the last time a Western won for Costume Design was…never. Not since the award was created in 1948.