I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
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Previously:
Documentary
Production Design
Original Song and Score
Glossary:
Eddie - American Cinema Editors Award
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
This is one of the least predictable awards of the night, this year in particular. There are two major precursor awards. The BAFTA award has only matched the Oscar winner 9 of the last 20 years, although it is 8/11 since 2007. Also, BAFTA has at least nominated the Oscar winner 19/20 times. The Eddie award is a lot better. It’s nominated the last 20 Oscar winners and handed an award out to 15 winners in that span. A little more useful even is the fact that the Oscar winner has won either the BAFTA or Eddie award 17 of the last 20 years. The three exceptions were 2000, when the Oscars loved Traffic more than anyone else, 2011, when The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo had one of the biggest surprise wins of the decade, and 2013, when Gravity won the Oscar after inexplicable losing the precursors.
Vice
Eddie - Comedy/Musical Film Editing - Nominee
BAFTA - Film Editing - Winner
There’s really no reason for the British Film Academy to like Vice. It’s very much an American film. This BAFTA win reminds me of Hacksaw Ridge winning a couple years ago. The idea is if the British have no reason to pick the movie and they do anyway, then the support is there to win among a voting body as large as the Oscars’. Vice’s editing is attention-grabbing. It covers a large amount of time. It also points out in the movie itself how hard it was to piece this all together. That’s sure to get voters thinking about the editing.
The Favourite
Eddie - Comedy/Musical Film Editing - Winner
BAFTA - Film Editing – Nominee
Losing the BAFTA when it otherwise dominated the award ceremony is a bad sign. The BAFTA doesn’t automatically go to the most British film, but when a movie has an easy path to a win and still doesn’t, it gives me pause. Still, this has the Eddie win, which is key, and no other movie jumps out.
Bohemian Rhapsody
Eddie - Drama Film Editing - Winner
BAFTA - Film Editing – Nominee
After Bohemian Rhapsody (inexplicably, in my opinion) won the Eddie award, a clip of the film went viral among awards voters highlighting how erratic and undisciplined the film's editing actually was. I have a hard time seeing how that doesn’t have an effect in a race that’s practically a dice roll to begin with. That said, the whisper campaign against Bohemian Rhapsody isn’t new and it still won the award handed out by the people who know film editing better than anyone.
Green Book
Eddie - Comedy/Musical Film Editing - Nominee
While being nominated for film editing is a major indicator of winning Best Picture, there isn’t a long history of the Best Picture winner winning the Film Editing award. The last time it happened was Argo for 2012. I’m not even convinced that Green Book is the Oscar frontrunner, but even if it is, the Film Editing award doesn’t have to come along with it. The movie does have an episodic nature that could be read as great editing.
BlacKkKlansman
Eddie - Drama Film Editing – Nominee
I’m pretty sure calling this the least likely to win necessitates that this has to win. While we’ll never know the exact results, I’d be shocked if any nominee got more than 30% of the votes. With margins that thin, it’s impossible to confidently predict this. One thought is that voters like to spread the wealth, so maybe I should look for a movie here that isn’t likely to win elsewhere. I can’t even apply that line of thinking to BlacKkKlansman here, because if it’s winning for anything, it’s going to be something that specifically Spike Lee is nominated for (Director, Screenplay, Picture/Producer)
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