Why Green Book Won’t Win Best Picture

The Best Picture race has never been less certain. I said that in 2018 and 2016 too. In 2017, I felt pretty confident then picked the wrong winner with absolute conviction. There hasn't been a certain winner going into the ceremony since The Artist won for 2011. This year, literally all 8 nominees feel like they have a chance to win, so I'm going to do a series on why they won't (and how they could). These will drop as each nominee runs out of precursor awards to learn anything from.

Next up, Driving Mr. Shirley.

Most Similar Best Picture Winner: 12 Years a Slave

Yes, Driving Miss Daisy is the easy comp. The story and themes are very similar. Both Driving Miss Daisy and Green Book failed to get a Best Director Oscar nomination. A lot has changed in 30 years though. The Oscar season is very different, even if the taste in movies apparently isn’t. I’d rather look at 12 Years a Slave. It had to beat an Alfonso Cuarón film as well (Gravity) to win the 2013 Oscar. 12 Years a Slave didn’t overwhelm the awards season with wins either. Like Green Book, it won the Golden Globe film award. It won the PGA Award in a tie. Green Book won it outright. 12 Years a Slave did also win the BAFTA Best Film award, which Green Book lost, but 12 Years a Slave can thank its British director (Steve McQueen) for that. Otherwise, 12 Years a Slave ceded the “Big 8”* guild awards to Gravity and others. Granted, one key difference is that 12 Years a Slave wasn’t eligible for the WGA award (which doesn’t count against it). Green Book was eligible for the WGA Award and lost it. I’d rather have 12 Years a Slave’s Oscar profile than Green Book’s.

*Golden Globe - Best Drama or Comedy Film (1), BAFTA - Best Film (2), Producers Guild - Best Feature (3), SAG - Best Ensemble (4), Directors Guild - Best Director (5), Writers Guild - Best Original or Adapted Screenplay (6), Editors Guild - Best Drama or Comedy Film Editing (7), American Society of Cinematographers - Best Cinematography (8).

Path to Victory:

It’s very easy to see how Green Book could win. It has 6 “Big 8”* precursor nominations. The last 20+ Best Picture winners have had 6 or more. It also has 2 “Big 8” wins. The last 20+ Best Picture winners have all had at least 1, putting it ahead of the pack. It won the PGA award, which is also picked using a preferential ballot. In a divided field like this year’s, that is a big plus. It means it’s likely to be at the top of a lot of ballots, even if it isn’t the first pick. The film has had long legs in the box office, meaning people have discovered it late. It’s this year’s “steak and potatoes”* Oscar voter pick.

*Code for “older Oscar voters like it”.

Why That Won’t Work:

Other than the PGA win, I’m not very impressed by Green Book’s Oscar profile. No SAG Ensemble win is a little strange, although that can be talked down since it’s a two-man cast most of the time. The film lost both the WGA and DGA awards. In 20 years, that’s only happened twice to a Best Picture winner. One was 12 Years a Slave. That wasn’t eligible for the WGA award. The other time was Gladiator. I’m not sure if that was WGA eligible. I feel like every argument I make about Green Book is why it’s still a contender for Best Picture, not why it’s a favorite. In actuality, it’s a Moonlight-sized underdog. It has all the minimum requirements to win, a few minor dings to its profile, and not much else. And I don’t know how to factor in the backlash for the film. The problems with the screenplay’s accuracy have turned a lot of people off, but the feeling that critics are trying to tell Oscar voters what they are “allowed” to vote for has motivated some contingent of voters to dig their feet in supporting the film.