Oscar Predictions: Best Visual Effects

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.

I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

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Previously:

Documentary 

Production Design

Original Song and Score   

Film Editing

Cinematography 

Supporting Actor

Supporting Actress 
Animated Feature 
Foreign Film

Glossary:

BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

VES - Visual Effects Guild's Award

The last 19 years, the Visual Effect Oscar winner was also nominated for the BAFTA award. 15 of the last 20 BAFTA winners also won the Oscar. That won’t be an issue this year, since the BAFTA winner, Black Panther, wasn’t even nominated for the Oscar. The VES award has only been around for 17 years. In the first 16 years, the Oscar winning film won at least one of the many VES awards 14 times. The VES Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature Award is the most indicative of the many handed out by the VES, so that’s the one I’ll be listing.

Avengers: Infinity War

VES - Visual Effects (Live-Action) - Winner

BAFTA - Visual Effects – Nominee

Infinity War dominated the VES Awards. That’s no guarantee to win the Oscar, but not having Black Panther in the mix makes the path a lot easier.

First Man

BAFTA - Visual Effects – Nominee

I think back to 2015, when Ex Machina won this award despite no precursor attention. The idea was that voters just picked their favorite movie of the bunch, not the one that actually had the best Visual Effects. Apparently, that pissed off the Academy brass. I doubt it will happen again, but there is precedent.

Ready Player One

VES - Visual Effects (Live-Action) - Nominee

BAFTA - Visual Effects – Nominee

Uh, I don’t know. Spielberg magic? It’s never helped much in the past, but maybe times have changed.

Solo: A Star Wars Story

VES - Visual Effects (Live-Action) - Nominee

The Force Awakens couldn’t beat Ex Machina. Rogue One lost. The Last Jedi too. In fact, no Star Wars movie had won this since the original trilogy. And Solo was considered a bomb.

Christopher Robin

VES - Visual Effects (Live-Action) – Nominee

There isn’t much precedent for a film like this winning the Visual Effects Oscar.