The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds,
Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to
figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar
categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the
nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That
doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
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Documentary
Production Design
Original Song and Score
Film Editing
Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television
Arts Awards
ACS - American Cinematographer Society Award
The two precursor awards are about equally as
good as predictors for the Oscar. BAFTA is perfect 20/20 nominating the Oscar
winner but only picked the same winner as the Oscars 9 times. ACS nominated the
Oscar winner a still pretty good 19 of 20 times but is slightly more in line
picking winners, matching the Oscar winner 11 times. Together, the Oscar
winning film has won either the ACS or BAFTA award 12 times. That leave a lot
of years for the award to go in a completely different direction.
BAFTA - Cinematography - Winner
ASC - Cinematography – Nominee
Cinematography isn’t known as a great indicator
of what will win Best Picture. In fact, it goes to the “runner-up” about as
often as it does the Best Picture winner. I do have a hard time seeing how Roma
is supposed to win Best Picture (which is the direction I’m leaning right now)
without winning for Cinematography.
BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee
ASC - Cinematography – Winner
Alfonso Cuarón is nominated for both Director and
Cinematography for his work on Roma. He’s almost certain to win the
Director award. I could easily see voters deciding this would be a good place
to pick Cold War to actually win something. It’s losing to Roma
everywhere else. The ASC award is evidence that Roma isn’t untouchable
here. Either way, it’s interesting that the two frontrunners are both
black-and-white films.
BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee
ASC - Cinematography – Nominee
The precursor nominations are the only thing to
convince me that it’s possible The Favourite could sneak in and get a
victory. It doesn’t have the same profile of any recent “surprise” winners
though (Hugo, Avatar, Pan’s Labyrinth).
ASC - Cinematography – Nominee
In the past, if there’s a “surprise” winner of
the Cinematography award, it makes some intuitive sense. That's not A Star
Is Born. No one is in a hurry to praise A Star Is Born’s
cinematography. This award isn’t that susceptible to wave wins either. So, even
if A Star Is Born wins big, Cinematography is likely to go elsewhere.
Never Look Away
Roma and Cold War have sucked all the air out of the room in the
category for foreign films. I could maybe see Never Look Away getting
past one but not both.
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