I'm going to go
through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won
elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to
win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be
informed. Wish me luck.
---
Previously:
Lead
Actress Original & Adapted Screenplay
Best Picture
Sound Editing & Mixing
Costume Design
Glossary:
Annie - Awards for
Animation
There isn’t much in
terms of precursor awards for the Short Oscar awards. The Annie Awards have an
Animated Short award that is not very useful. Since 2001, only 6 winners of the
Animated Short Oscar were even nominated for the Annie award.
Looking in the
past, there isn’t a pattern for what kind of Shorts win the Oscar. Just as soon
as you think you’ve identified a trend, it changes. What that means is that for
any sufficiently competitive Oscar party, these three categories will decide
the winner.
Animated Short
One Small Step
Personally, I found this story of a father and daughter’s relationship
over the years yet another example of someone aping the first 10 minutes of Up, and I thought it was pretty emotionally
manipulative. But nothing else stood out. The animation is clean and looked
great. The story is straightforward and sweet.
Bao
There’s a theory of Disney dominance in the category. The idea is that because
Disney puts their shorts before their animated movies, more people have seen
them and feel comfortable voting for them. That doesn’t really check out. Disney
loses as often as it wins if not more. Bao
is weirdly violent. It doesn’t have the sweetness of Feast or Paperman from a
few years ago. It isn’t as visually impressive as Piper two years ago. If anything, it’s more like Sanjay’s Super Team from 3 years ago
which lost the Oscar. Still, it has the Disney brand name, so I’d be a fool to put
it lower than second.
Weekends
Annie - Animated Short - Winner
This did win the Annie award. That must count for something. And, One Small Step and Bao are about the same basic thing, so Weekends’ unique visuals and slightly different story could set it
apart.
Late Afternoon
It’s a simple story about the horror of Alzheimer’s. The animation style,
I believe will be the deterrent for this.
Animal Behavior
In my experience
(only 3 years, I’ll admit), the nominee that’s most overtly comedic doesn’t win
this. So, while I enjoyed this group therapy short featuring animals, I’m not
picking it.
Documentary Short
Period. End of
Sentence
Last year, I hated Heaven is a
Traffic Jam on the 405, and I was certain it was the only nominee that
couldn’t win. I was wrong, so we’ll see how this goes. Here’s what I did learn
last year. The 405 is a Los Angeles interstate. Dear Basketball (last year’s Animated Short winner) was produced by
Los Angeles Lakes legend Kobe Bryant. If there’s a tangible LA connection,
like, say, a documentary short about a charitable act by a Los Angeles high
school, then it has better Oscar odds. Well, Period. End of Sentence is exactly that. It’s also an uplifting
documentary about female empowerment in India, which is something the film
Academy is very responsive to.
A Night at the
Garden
This is a very short documentary with footage of an American Nazi rally
that took place in Madison Square Garden shortly before Germany invaded Poland.
It’s footage that’s sure to rile up a lot of feelings. I do worry that it’s a
little too short and feels more like a tryout for a feature documentary about
the topic.
Lifeboat
This documentary about a European group who rescues Libyan refugees who
try to sail makeshift boats across the Mediterranean felt maybe a little
timelier a year or two ago. Now, I don’t see it winning. On a personal note, I
got annoyed by how many times the filmmaker inserted “art shots” into this:
close-ups of water-soaked objects that the camera sits on for 10 seconds and
things like that. It made me feel like the filmmaker was less concerned about
the story of the documentary and more concerned with securing a bigger next
job.
End Game
It’s a moving documentary about end of life hospital care. I think it
tries a little too hard to make people cry though. There’s no urgency to this.
Black Sheep
It’s a fairly
shocking documentary about a black British teen who tries to turn himself white
in order to fit in with a group of racist white thugs in his town. It really
needed some more context though and ends in a way that leaves you wanting more
(in a bad way). I suspect voters won’t know what to do with this one and will
opt to pick something else.
Live-Action Short
Before I get into
the specifics, I have to say that this category was grim. I guess funny
live-action shorts have outlets like Funny or Die to go to, so all that’s left
for the Oscars are depressing shorts. Whatever the reason, these nominees were
so damn depressing. People left the theater while I was watching them. And let
me tell you, people bothering to set aside 3.5 hours on a Saturday to watch
Oscar shorts are pretty committed. It takes a lot to scare them away.
Marguerite
This is the only Live-Action Short that wasn’t about children in danger. It’s
a sad but incredibly sweet short about an elderly woman looking back on missed
opportunities in her life. It’s the only one that didn’t leave me cold and
hopeless. I think that will make it stick out with voters. The few years I’ve
been watching the shorts, much to my surprise, the winners haven’t been the
grim nominees. And this is the only non-grim nominee this year.
Detainment
Of the depressing nominees, this one is the most moving and complete. It’s
based on the true story of a couple 10-year-olds who killed a younger boy being
questioned by police. (Brutal, I know.) I don’t expect Oscar voters to be aware
of the controversy surrounding the film. Apparently, the parents of the boy who
was murdered didn’t give any consent for the film. In fact, they are very much
against it being made.
Madre (Mother)
This one is about a mother who gets a call from her six-year-old son who
is lost on a beach and possibly being abducted. It’s a technically impressive
film, made to look like one continuous shot. It’s very much an incomplete story
though; another short that feels more like a pitch for a feature length film
than a self-contained story.
Skin
The son of a neo-Nazi witnesses his father attack a black man only to see
friends of the victim get ironic revenge. This is the one that people walked
out of when I was seeing these. It’s needlessly violent and not remotely
subtle. I expect that it will turn voters off.
Fauve
Two young boys. Isolated. Quick sand. You do the math. This feels like it
only exists to depress whoever watches it.
No comments:
Post a Comment