I'm going to go
through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won
elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to
win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be
informed. Wish me luck.
---
Previously:
Glossary:
Eddie - American
Cinema Editors Award
PGA - Producers
Guild of America Award
BAFTA - British
Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe - Award
presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
ACS - American
Cinematographer Society Award
SAG - Screen Actors
Guild Award
DGA - Director's
Guild of America
WGA - Writer's Guild
of America
I’d love to save
this for last but the schedule never works out for that. So, here we go. As always, before I
get into my actual predictions for Best Picture, I want to look at a few items
that factored into my thoughts.
Oscar History
Best Picture is a
broad category. It's the only category that shouldn't be voted on in a vacuum.
For instance, Sound Editing, is voted on based on the Sound Editing in a film.
The Production Design should have nothing to do with how Sound Editing is
decided. The Best Picture award should consider both of those and more. The aim
of the Best Picture award is to find the movie that is the best when you take
all its parts into consideration. However, four award categories have proven to
be more important than the others, by a significant margin.
The Best Picture
winner has also been nominated for…
…Directing 48
times in the last 50 years. The only exceptions are 2012, when Ben Affleck/Argo
won the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and DGA award but was snubbed for the Oscar, and Driving
Miss Daisy in 1989. Driving Miss Daisy is especially interesting
given the Green Book comparison and similar profile.
…Acting 46
times in the last 50 years. The only exceptions are Slumdog Millionaire
(2008), The Return of the King (2003), Braveheart (1995), and The
Last Emperor (1987), all of which relied more on ensembles.
…Writing 49 times
in the last 50 years. The only exception was Titanic (1997), which
might’ve been seen more as a grand production than something well written.
…Editing 46
times in the last 50 years. The four exceptions were The Godfather Part II
(1974), Annie Hall (1977), Ordinary People (1980), and Birdman
(2014). I can’t find a trend there except that Editing always seems to show up
for Best Picture winners.
I’d argue that the
screenplay nomination is the most important one for a Best Picture hopeful.
Only 1 omission out of 50, and the 1 omission also holds the record for most
Oscar wins. The director award is virtually as important. Many still ascribe to
the auteur theory of filmmaking and see Best Picture and Best Director as going
hand-in-hand. Given that there are 20 acting awards, it kind of feels like the
Best Picture number should be higher. The film editing correlation has simply
gone on for too long and too reliably to be a coincidence. No other nominations
matter as much to the Best Picture Oscar than these four.
Here’s where that
all starts to really matter. In the last 50 years (longer, actually), every
Best Picture winner has had at least 3 of these nominations. 39 of the Best
Picture winners have had all 4, but that doesn’t increase the chances to win in
any meaningful way over just 3. No matter how unlikely the Best Picture winner
-Chariots of Fire, Braveheart, Crash – they all had three.
Let’s see how this
year’s nominees break down.
Black Panther (none)
BlacKkKlansman (Directing, Acting,
Screenplay, and Editing)
Bohemian Rhapsody (Acting and Editing)
The Favourite (Directing, Acting,
Screenplay, and Editing)
Green Book (Acting, Screenplay, and
Editing)
Roma (Directing, Acting, and
Screenplay)
A Star Is Born (Acting and Screenplay)
Vice (Directing, Acting,
Screenplay, and Editing)
Based on that, Black
Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, and A Star Is Born are right out.
The only one of those that’s a surprise to me is A Star Is Born. I
thought it was more of a contender And I hope this underlines just how much of
an underdog Black Panther is to win. I’m not sure the last time a Best
Picture nominee had none of the four. Even Extremely Loud and Incredibly
Close had an acting nomination. In terms of the five remaining “true
contenders”, I can’t find much to ding any of them. Green Book missing
the director nomination hurts it more than Roma missing the editing
nomination.
Precursor Awards
It's also important
to look outside the Oscars for guidance. There are dozens of guilds, critics
groups, and random film groups handing out awards leading up to the Oscars.
I've picked 8 groups with awards that either correspond closely with the Best
Picture winner or are broad enough to be worth discussing. Here's the
credentials of each:
BAFTA Award for Best
Film: 19 of the last 20
Best Picture winners were also nominated for the BAFTA award. The lone miss was
Million Dollar Baby, which showed up late in the season that year. The
winner has only matched the Best Picture winner half of the last 20 years. A
bigger cause for concern is that they've differed from the Oscars the last four
years. So, while the Roma win this year speaks poorly for The
Favourite, it doesn’t make me feel that secure about Roma.
Golden Globe for
Best Film, Drama & Comedy/Musical: Even with two categories to do it, the Golden
Globes have only matched with the Best Picture winner 11 of the last 20 years.
It is worth noting that they have nominated 19/20 winners. The only exception
was having the good taste to pass on Crash in 2005. You can almost throw
the results out this year. Roma wasn’t eligible for the Drama Film award
since it competed as a Foreign Film at the Globes (where it won). The Bohemian
Rhapsody Drama film win feels weird no matter how I look at it. All the
Best Picture nominees this year had a Golden Globe nomination, so nothing
learned there.
Producers Guild of
America Award for Best Film: Many people consider the PGA Award the single best Best Picture bellwether.
They are the only other group that uses the same weighted ballot that the
Oscars use for Best Picture, and they have a similarly large list of nominees
(10 for the PGA vs. 8 for Best Picture this year). For 8 years (2007-2014) the
PGA Award was the only precursor award to call every Best Picture winner. The
PGA Award has only matched 1 of the last 3 Best Picture winners though. That
makes the PGA Award more of a data point than a magic bullet by my estimation.
I’d like to use the fact that all of the last 20 Best Picture winners have been
nominated for the PGA Award too as a way to whittle down the “real contenders”
list, but all of this year’s Best Picture nominees were also nominated for the
PGA Award.
Screen Actors Guild
Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Film: Call it what you want, it’s still the SAG
Ensemble Award to me. Last year was the first time a film has ever won Best
Picture without a SAG Ensemble nomination. Frankly, that was long overdue. Look
at this year for instance. Best Picture nominees with a SAG Ensemble nomination
are Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, and A
Star Is Born. However, Green Book, Vice, and The Favourite
all got multiple SAG nominations for individual performances. Conversely, the
SAG Ensemble winner, Black Panther, didn’t have any nominations for
individual performances. Roma was the only Best Picture nominee
completely cut out from the SAG Awards. And that could be chalked up to most if
not all of the cast not belonging to the guild. It’s a mess this year. Use the
SAG Award at your own risk. I suspect the change in the Ensemble Award’s name
is an indication that they don’t want it to be seen as a Best Picture stand-in.
Directors Guild of
America Award for Best Director: The DGA Award is the best single indicator of the Best Picture winner I’ve
found among the precursor awards. 14 of the last 20 years, the film that won
the DGA Award also won Best Picture. Sadly, it’s only matched 1 of the last 3
Best Picture winners (2 of the last 5), fitting with the overall trend of
precursor wins being less reliable now than in the past. In fact, when Alfonso Cuarón won the 2013
DGA Award, his film, Gravity, lost Best Picture. So, use caution when
pointing to his Roma win this year. What I can use is that the DGA has
at least nominated all of the last 20 Best Picture winners. That’s bad news for
Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, and The Favourite.
American Cinema
Editors Award for Editing, Drama & Comedy/Musical: The Eddie is no kingmaker, nor should it be
dismissed outright. Of the last 20 Best Picture winners, only Spotlight
wasn't nominated for an Eddie. It's hard to pull anything significant out of
that exception. Seeing that the only Best Picture nominee this year without an
Eddie nomination is Black Panther, that doesn’t tell me much that I
didn’t already know. The Eddie winners aren’t great indicators of a Best
Picture win either. Only 9/20 Best Picture winners won an Eddie, and the last
time it happened was Argo six years ago.
American Society of
Cinematographers Award for Cinematography in a Film: The ASC award is the first cut I'd make if I
narrowed down the list of precursors. I mainly keep it around to show how
steeply things drop if I look beyond these awards. The ACS nominees have only
included 13 of the last 20 Best Picture winners. Only 3/20 Best Picture winners
have also won the ASC Award. I’m not about to dismiss BlacKkKlansman, Green
Book, or Vice for failing to pull in this nomination. Roma is
the only one that had to get the ACS nomination. Had it failed to do so,
alarm bells would be going off.
Writer's Guild of
America Award for Best Screenplay, Adapted & Original: The WGA Award can be
difficult to assess. Because of the guild rules, nearly every year a couple
Best Picture nominees aren't even eligible for the WGA Award. However, being
ineligible for the WGA Award doesn’t hurt a film’s Best Picture odds. 4 Best
Picture winners in the last decade won despite being WGA ineligible. It's hard
to check what was and wasn't eligible in a given year, so the numbers can be a
little deceptive. I only know for sure what films were ineligible since 2010.
Last year was the first time since 2004 (Million Dollar Baby) that a
Best Picture winner was eligible for the WGA Award and failed to win it. Alas,
the WGA Award is yet another precursor award that isn’t very useful to me this
year. All Best Picture nominees were nominated for the WGA Award except for The
Favourite, which wasn’t eligible. And, for the first time in at least 20
years, neither WGA winner (Adapted or Original) was nominated for Best Picture.
Regarding these
precursor awards, here are the numbers you need to know. In the last 20 years,
no movie has won Best Picture without at least 1 win and 6 nominations.
So, how do things
look among those 8 groups for this year's Best Picture nominees?
BlacKkKlansman: 7 nominations, 0 wins
Black Panther: 4 nominations, 1 win
Bohemian Rhapsody: 4 nominations, 2 wins
The Favourite: 5 nominations*, 0 wins
Green Book: 6 nominations, 2 wins
Roma: 7 nominations, 3 wins
A Star Is Born: 8 nominations, 0 wins
Vice: 5 nominations, 0 wins
*Indicates WGA
ineligible movies.
So, what do these
numbers tell me? Quite a lot, actually. Black Panther, Bohemian
Rhapsody, The Favourite (sort of), and Vice all don’t have
enough precursor nominations. BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, A
Star Is Born, and Vice failed to get the one “required” precursor
win. That leaves only Roma and Green Book with the minimum
“requirements” to win Best Picture. This, as far as I’m concerned, is HUGE. But
it doesn’t guarantee that it’s a two film race. A Star is Born and
BlacKkKlansman have a ton a precursor nominations. Bohemian Rhapsody has laughed at precedent all season long. In a field this split,
precursor wins might not matter as much as normal.
Other Considerations
Good god, are there
ever other considerations this year. The mix of no clear frontrunner and films
with major PR issues has made this the most contentious campaign I can
remember. I’ll summarize it all as well as I can. Check any of the trade sites
if you really want all the details.
Green Book: The family of Dr. Don
Shirley (played in the movie by Mahershala Ali) wasn’t consulted at all for
before the film was made and they have disputed much of the content of the
film. Co-screenwriter Nick Vallenlonga (son of the man played by Viggo
Mortensen in the film) had an anti-Muslim tweet resurface, which looked bad. In
general, people have complained about the film oversimplifying race relations
in the 1960s and turning the story into a “white savior” narrative.
Bohemian Rhapsody: Fired director Bryan
Singer has been accused of several accounts of sexual assault, many with
minors. The producers and crew have been mostly successful at distancing
themselves from Singer so far, but that will definitely factor into Best
Picture voting. It’s a bad look to reward Singer in any way. Also, the film
took some liberties with actual events (changing the order or “cleaning up” the
truth) that have bothered fans and detractors alike.
Roma: Many in the industry
resent Netflix’s attempt to disrupt the whole movie industry. Netflix largely
bypassed releasing Roma in theaters, and they shattered the spending
record for Roma’s award campaign. A lot of Academy members feel that
Netflix is accelerating the demise of the film industry as they know it and
don’t want to reward the studio. Frankly, if Roma loses Best Picture,
you can point directly to the Netflix connection. Then again, would it have
done this well without Netlix spending so much to promote it?
Vice and BlacKkKlansman
are transparently political films. A Star Is Born has been called
regressive. A vote for Black Panther is a vote for Disney’s populist
takeover. The Favourite seems to be the only Best Picture nominee not
mired in some sort of controversy or conspiracy, although I’ve probably just
missed the PETA protests or op-eds written by belligerent British historians.
Then, there's always
the consideration of the Oscar ballot itself. You see, it's a weighted ballot,
meaning everyone ranks their 8 picks. If a movie doesn't have a majority of
first place votes on the first count, the ballots picking whatever movie came
in last get redistributed using the second pick, and so on and so forth until
one movie has a majority. If you ever feel like the Oscar winner is a
compromise, you're kind of right. This method is more favorable for generally
liked movies than ones that people run hot and cold on. For example, if Roma
has a lot of 1st and 8th place votes it will be harder for it to win than if Green
Book has mostly 3rd and 4th place votes, even if Roma has more 1st
place votes than Green Book. In case you want to read more on how it
works
Variety
and
FiveThirtyEight
both have better explanations.
Finally, the Academy
membership. Thanks mainly to #OscarSoWhite, the Film Academy changed its
membership greatly the last few years. There’s been a big influx of new members
with a focus on diversity. Now with more minority, female, and international
members in the Academy, do all the old metrics go out the window? Or, do we
find out that, at the end of the day, people working in the industry, no matter
the demographic, still vote the same way? I don’t think Black Panther is
really a contender, but maybe it is with all the new members. Did it really
take a change in the makeup of the Academy body for Spike Lee to finally break
through, or was that going to happen anyway? It’ll take years to really say
how, but things have undeniably changed.
Predictions
(From most to least likely to win)
I’ve gone in depth
making the case for each of the films (Please follow the links for each), so
I’m keeping the Pros and Cons simple here.
10 Oscar Nominations
(including Directing, 2 Acting, and Screenplay)
BAFTA - Feature Film
- Winner
Golden Globes -
Foreign Film - Winner
DGA - Direction -
Winner
WGA - Original
Screenplay - Nominee
PGA - Feature Film -
Nominee
ASC - Cinematography
- Nominee
Eddie - Drama Film
Editing - Nominee
Pros: It is the only film without
a blemish in its Oscar profile. It has all the minimum “requirements” to win.
The DGA Award is the best single historical Best Picture indicator. The BAFTA
win is one I assumed it wouldn’t get. The two acting Oscar nominations show the film has more love
in the Academy’s voting body than elsewhere. And, it tied for the most Oscar
nominations overall this year.
Cons: Losing the PGA give me
pause. A WGA win would’ve sealed it. Instead, it’s still open for another film
to swoop in.
6 Oscar Nominations
(including 2 Acting, Editing, and Screenplay)
PGA - Feature Film -
Winner
Golden Globes -
Comedy/Musical Film - Winner
WGA - Original
Screenplay - Nominee
BAFTA - Feature Film
- Nominee
DGA - Direction -
Nominee
Eddie -
Comedy/Musical Film Editing - Nominee
Pros: It won the PGA award.
That’s very significant. It has plenty of guild nominations.
Cons: No Best Director nomination
feels significant too. It really needed a WGA win to look like the favorite.
6 Oscar Nominations
(including Directing, Acting, Editing, and Screenplay)
WGA - Adapted
Screenplay - Nominee
BAFTA - Feature Film
- Nominee
Golden Globes -
Drama Film - Nominee
PGA - Feature Film -
Nominee
DGA - Direction -
Nominee
SAG - Ensemble -
Nominee
Eddie - Drama Film
Editing - Nominee
Pros: All the key Oscar
nominations. 7 of 8 major precursor nominations. Spike Lee has an “it’s his time”
narrative.
Cons: No “Big 8” precursor wins.
When given a choice, every group chose a different movie every time.
8 Oscar Nominations
(including Acting and Editing)
WGA - Adapted
Screenplay - Nominee
BAFTA - Feature Film
- Nominee
Golden Globes -
Drama Film - Nominee
PGA - Feature Film -
Nominee
DGA - Direction -
Nominee
SAG - Ensemble -
Nominee
ASC - Cinematography
- Nominee
Eddie - Drama Film
Editing - Nominee
Pros: It’s the only film with all
8 of the “Big 8” precursor nominations.
Cons: It’s missing key Oscar nominations
and didn’t win any major precursor awards. Its momentum has ground to a halt.
10 Oscar Nominations
(including Directing, 3 Acting, Editing, and Screenplay)
Eddie -
Comedy/Musical Film Editing - Winner
BAFTA - Feature Film
- Nominee
Golden Globes -
Comedy/Musical Film - Nominee
PGA - Feature Film -
Nominee
ASC - Cinematography
- Nominee
WGA - Ineligible
Pros: Several key precursor
nominations and even a win with the Editors Guild. Tied for the most overall
Oscar nominations and it has nominations in all the key fields. Being WGA
ineligible adds a wildcard factor. Olivia Colman has helped the film’s general
likability greatly.
Cons: Not enough precursor
nominations (Seriously, how did it not get a SAG ensemble nomination?) and the
one precursor win it has is a weak one. This movie not winning the BAFTA award
is certain death. Female led films have a hard time winning Best Picture too.
5 Oscar Nominations
(including Acting and Editing)
Golden Globes -
Drama Film - Winner
Eddie - Drama Film
Editing - Winner
PGA - Feature Film -
Nominee
SAG - Ensemble -
Nominee
Pros: It scored big precursor
award wins. It’s weathered controversy as well as any film in recent memory.
Nothing about this Oscar run has been rational, so why should it start making
sense now?
Cons: Bryan Singer. Movies
don’t win Best Picture without Directing or Screenplay nominations. Bryan
Singer. Only 4 major precursor nominations is really underwhelming. Bryan
Singer. Mixed reviews to begin with. Oh, and Bryan Singer.
Black Panther
7 Oscar Nominations
(0 major nominations)
SAG - Ensemble -
Winner
Golden Globes -
Drama Film - Nominee
PGA - Feature Film -
Nominee
Pros: A SAG win indicates genral love
from the largest Academy branch. It has a lot of nominations. We’ve never seen
a Best Picture nominee with this kind of profile. The Academy membership has
changed a lot in the last couple years, so a lot of traditional “Oscar metrics”
aren’t as deterministic as in the past.
Cons: 0 major Oscar
nominations. Only 3 major nominations from precursor groups. Even if I believed
Black Panther had strong backing from the actors’ branch of the Academy,
it doesn’t appear to be a favorite among anyone else.
Vice
8 Oscar Nominations
(including Directing, 3 Acting, Editing, and Screenplay)
WGA - Original
Screenplay - Nominee
Golden Globes -
Comedy/Musical Film - Nominee
PGA - Feature Film -
Nominee
DGA - Direction -
Nominee
Eddie -
Comedy/Musical Film Editing - Nominee
Pros: It has all the key Oscar
nominations.
Cons: It isn’t a favorite for any
major award. If Christian Bale couldn’t even lock up a weak Lead Actor field
then this isn’t winning.
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