The Oscars
are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made
their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my
multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going
to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated
and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least
likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean
I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
---
Previously:
Glossary:
Annie -
Awards for Animation
Eddie
- American Cinema Editors Award
PGA -
Producers Guild of America Award
BAFTA -
British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden
Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association Award
The animated
feature Oscar is one of the newer awards and one of the easier ones to predict
most years. It has many precursor awards and not much variation between the
fields. The ACE award winner has matched the Oscar winner 8 of the 9 years
that’s it’s been around. The one exception was 2014, when The Lego Movie
won the ACE and wasn’t nominated for the Animated Feature Oscars. All 12 years
the Golden Globes have been handing out an award the Oscar winner was nominated
by them. They’ve matched the Oscar winner 9 times. The BAFTAs have also
nominated the Oscar winner the 12 years they’ve had the award. They matched
winners 10 times, and yes, one of the years it didn’t was 2014 with The LEGO
Movie snub throwing things off. The PGA is 13/13 nominating the Oscar
winner, matching the Oscar winner 9 times. The last time they didn’t agree with
the Oscars was of course 2014 because of The LEGO Movie. The Annie
awards have nominated the Oscar winner year all 17 years the Oscars have been
handing out the award. They matched winners 12 times. The only year that at
least one precursor award group didn’t pick the eventual Oscar champ: 2014.
What I’m trying to say is that except for one really dumb year, the precursors
spell things out clearly.
Annie -
Animated Feature - Winner
PGA -
Animated Feature - Winner
BAFTA -
Animated Feature – Winner
Golden
Globe - Animated Feature - Winner
Eddie -
Edited Animated Feature – Winner
Every time a movie
has won even four of these precursor awards, it also won the Oscar. Spider-Verse
rightfully has this locked up…
Annie -
Animated Feature - Nominee
PGA -
Animated Feature - Nominee
BAFTA -
Animated Feature - Nominee
Golden
Globe - Animated Feature - Nominee
Eddie -
Edited Animated Feature – Nominee
…or do they? The Disney/Pixar
bias is real. That’s why neither How to Train Your Dragon movie has
managed to win. It’s why Laika Studios has never won the trophy. The last time
a non-Disney movie won was 2011’s Rango. Given that Incredibles 2
was universally praised, it wouldn’t be crazy for it to sneak in and win.
Annie -
Animated Feature - Nominee
PGA -
Animated Feature - Nominee
BAFTA -
Animated Feature - Nominee
Golden
Globe - Animated Feature - Nominee
Eddie -
Edited Animated Feature – Nominee
For as much love as
critics have for Wes Anderson, his movies always have trouble winning Oscars.
They rack up nominations and get maybe a screenplay or production design award,
but that’s about it. I figured this wouldn’t win the Animated Feature Oscar as
soon its release date was moved from the heart of the 2018 award season to
March 2019, where it was safely out of the reach of immediate awards talk.
Annie -
Animated Feature - Nominee
PGA -
Animated Feature - Nominee
Golden
Globe - Animated Feature – Nominee
The Disney
Animation nominee tends to only be a viable contender in years when Pixar drops
the ball. That is not the case with Pixar in 2018.
Mirai
Golden
Globe - Animated Feature - Nominee
It would be cool to
see a small studio win this one of these days, but the major studios have this
category on lock down for now.
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