I'm going to go through each of the Oscar
categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the
nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That
doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
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Previously:
Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television
Arts Awards
ADG - Art Director's Guild Award
The Production Design award has some history of
surprise. The BAFTA Award has only matched the Oscar winner 9 of the last 20
years, although it has nominated the Oscar winner 19 of those years. Also, it’s
been more reliable in the last decade. The ADG are more reliable overall, nominating
the Oscar winner all 20 years and matching winners 14 of those years. Of
course, the ADG has 15 nominations and 3 awards to do it with.
The Favourite
BAFTA - Production Design - Winner
ADG - Period Production Design – Winner
8 of the last 11 times the BAFTA and ADG have agreed on a winner, it also went on to win the Oscar. The last time this didn’t work out was 2010, when Inception won both and lost the Oscar to Alice in Wonderland. That makes some sense, as Oscar voters lean more toward the fantastical or decadent for this award. That makes The Favourite’s wins feel very secure. The rule of thumb with the design awards is to think “most” rather than “best”.
BAFTA - Production Design - Winner
ADG - Period Production Design – Winner
8 of the last 11 times the BAFTA and ADG have agreed on a winner, it also went on to win the Oscar. The last time this didn’t work out was 2010, when Inception won both and lost the Oscar to Alice in Wonderland. That makes some sense, as Oscar voters lean more toward the fantastical or decadent for this award. That makes The Favourite’s wins feel very secure. The rule of thumb with the design awards is to think “most” rather than “best”.
Mary Poppins Returns
BAFTA - Production Design - Nominee
ADG - Fantasy Production Design – Nominee
As I said, “most” rather than “best”. Poppins has both period and fantasy elements to it and that could lead to a win. The aspect probably holding it back is the amount that the Production Design was built on what was established in the original Mary Poppins. It probably doesn’t help that when it lost the ADG award, it wasn’t even going up against The Favourite. It lost to Black Panther.
BAFTA - Production Design - Nominee
ADG - Fantasy Production Design – Nominee
As I said, “most” rather than “best”. Poppins has both period and fantasy elements to it and that could lead to a win. The aspect probably holding it back is the amount that the Production Design was built on what was established in the original Mary Poppins. It probably doesn’t help that when it lost the ADG award, it wasn’t even going up against The Favourite. It lost to Black Panther.
Black Panther
ADG - Fantasy Production Design - Winner
The ADG win helps and it just takes one look at the movie to see how great the Production Design is. The movie wasn’t taken that seriously by the BAFTA, so I won’t look down on that snub. Rather, I’d like to point to the fact that superhero movies don’t fair well here. I think there’s a prejudice against movies that rely too much on CGI for the Production Design. There are exceptions – Avatar won for 2009 – but I don’t think Black Panther has the steam to get past this hurdle.
ADG - Fantasy Production Design - Winner
The ADG win helps and it just takes one look at the movie to see how great the Production Design is. The movie wasn’t taken that seriously by the BAFTA, so I won’t look down on that snub. Rather, I’d like to point to the fact that superhero movies don’t fair well here. I think there’s a prejudice against movies that rely too much on CGI for the Production Design. There are exceptions – Avatar won for 2009 – but I don’t think Black Panther has the steam to get past this hurdle.
Roma
BAFTA - Production Design - Nominee
ADG - Period Production Design – Nominee
Roma doesn’t look like the normal Oscar winner for Production Design. It’s not colorful. It’s not excessive. It’s more meticulous and sparse. I can’t remember the last time a black-and-white film won this award. The way Roma wins is if Roma steamrolls the Oscar ceremony, which seems unlikely in such a competitive year.
BAFTA - Production Design - Nominee
ADG - Period Production Design – Nominee
Roma doesn’t look like the normal Oscar winner for Production Design. It’s not colorful. It’s not excessive. It’s more meticulous and sparse. I can’t remember the last time a black-and-white film won this award. The way Roma wins is if Roma steamrolls the Oscar ceremony, which seems unlikely in such a competitive year.
First Man
BAFTA - Production Design - Nominee
ADG - Period Production Design - Nominee
Oscar voters really don’t like voting for the more technical Production Designs. Dunkirk, Interstellar, and Inception all lost this award…Oh wow. I didn’t even realize I was naming Christopher Nolan movies when I made that list. I was just looking for similar nominees to First Man. Regardless, my point stands. Something loud and colorful like Damian Chazelle’s last movie, La La Land, is much more likely to win this. And, First Man didn’t catch on with Oscar voters overall.
BAFTA - Production Design - Nominee
ADG - Period Production Design - Nominee
Oscar voters really don’t like voting for the more technical Production Designs. Dunkirk, Interstellar, and Inception all lost this award…Oh wow. I didn’t even realize I was naming Christopher Nolan movies when I made that list. I was just looking for similar nominees to First Man. Regardless, my point stands. Something loud and colorful like Damian Chazelle’s last movie, La La Land, is much more likely to win this. And, First Man didn’t catch on with Oscar voters overall.
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