Best Picture Cheat Sheet

On Oscar night, we all have movies we are rooting for or against to win Best Picture. Most years, a movie will start winning a bunch of awards and make you start to believe that it could pull off the upset. I still remember having a glimmer of hope for Hugo and Max Max: Fury Road after collecting early technical or craft awards only to have my hopes dashed at the end of the night.
 

To save you from getting your hopes up, I've put together an Oscar cheat sheet of sorts. Based on my expert assessment*, I let you know which wins or loses mean something if they happen at this year's Oscars.

*Please don't check my prediction results over the years.

In case it isn’t clear…

Guarantees – Winning this award means it will win Best Picture.

Helps – Winning this award increases Best Picture odds.

Hurts – Losing this award decreases Best Picture odds.

Denies – Losing this award means it will not win Best Picture

Doesn’t Matter – A win or loss is meaningless for Best Picture.

Roma
Guarantees Lead Actress Original Screenplay	Helps Supporting Actress Sound Editing Sound Mixing
Denies Director	Hurts Foreign Film Cinematography
Doesn’t Matter Production Design

Green Book
Guarantees Lead Actor	Helps
Denies Supporting Actor	Hurts Original Screenplay
Doesn’t Matter Film Editing

BlacKkKlansman
Guarantees Director	Helps Supporting Actor
Denies Adapted Screenplay	Hurts
Doesn’t Matter Film Editing

Black Panther
Guarantees	Helps Original Score Original Song Sound Editing Sound Mixing
Denies	Hurts Costume Design Production Design
Doesn’t Matter

The Favourite
Guarantees Director	Helps Lead Actress Supporting Actress
Denies Original Screenplay	Hurts Production Design Costume Design
Doesn’t Matter Cinematography Film Editing

Vice
Guarantees Supporting Actor Director	Helps Supporting Actress
Denies Makeup & Hairstyling Lead Actor Original Screenplay	Hurts
Doesn’t Matter Film Editing

A Star Is Born
Guarantees	Helps Lead Actor Lead Actress Supporting Actor
Denies Original Song Adapted Screenplay	Hurts Sound Mixing
Doesn’t Matter Sound Editing

Bohemian Rhapsody
Guarantees	Helps
Denies Lead Actor	Hurts Sound Editing Sound Mixing
Doesn’t Matter Film Editing