The Oscars
are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made
their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my
multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going
to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated
and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least
likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean
I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
---
Previously:
Glossary:
BAFTA -
British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden
Globe - Award presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
WGA -
Writers Guild of America Awards
Solid precursor
awards for screenplay. The BAFTAs have nominated the eventual Oscar winner for
Adapted Screenplay the last 18 years (although not the two years before that)
and 19 of the last 20 for Original Screenplay. The BAFTAs have matched the
Oscar winner 8/20 times for Adapted Screenplay and 11/20 times for Original
Screenplay. Despite the Golden Globes combining the two screenplay awards into
one, they still have a good track record. They’ve nominated 15/20 Adapted
Screenplay Oscar winners and 16/20 Original Screenplay Oscar winners. The
winner of the Golden Globe ended up winning either the Adapted or Original
Screenplay Oscar 14 of the last 20 years, although it’s on a three-year cold
streak right now. The WGA Award is hard to track because a lot of Oscar
nominees aren’t eligible for their awards. Here’s what I do know. The last 7
Oscar winning Adapted Screenplays that were WGA eligible also won the WGA
Award. 4 of the last 5 Oscar winning Original Screenplays that were WGA
eligible also won the WGA Award. The one exception had to do with Moonlight
being called Original by the WGA and Adapted by the Oscars. My research about
WGA eligible screenplays only goes back to 2010. What all this says is that if
a screenplay is eligible for the WGA Award, it better win it.
All 20 of the last
20 Original Screenplay Oscar winners won at least one of these three awards. A
less impressive 15 of the last 20 Adapted Screenplay Oscar winners won at least
one of the three awards, although this comes with the caveat that I don’t know
about WGA eligibility for most of the years.
Original Screenplay
BAFTA -
Original Screenplay - Winner
WGA
- Ineligible
Golden
Globes - Screenplay – Nominee
This is the kind of
screenplay that’s just designed to win the Oscar. It gives the actresses and
actors so much ammunition for their performances. The screenplay is showy in a
way that's too delicious to care. It helps that, since it wasn’t eligible for
the WGA award, I can’t hold Eighth Grade winning that against The
Favourite.
BAFTA -
Original Screenplay - Nominee
WGA -
Original Screenplay - Nominee
Golden
Globes - Screenplay – Winner
This will be a
bellwether award for Best Picture. Green Book needs it more than anyone,
so I’m placing it second for this award as a hedge in case Green Book is
destined to win Best Picture. The Golden Globe award is nice to have, although
that was a lifetime ago in the award season. Winning the WGA Award would’ve
made this so much simpler.
BAFTA -
Original Screenplay - Nominee
WGA -
Original Screenplay - Nominee
Golden
Globes - Screenplay – Nominee
On the off chance
that Roma completely dominates the night, this award would be obvious to
include in the haul for the night.
BAFTA -
Original Screenplay - Nominee
WGA -
Original Screenplay - Nominee
Golden
Globes - Screenplay - Nominee
It sure feels like
a screenplay this flashy should’ve won something, right?
The writers’ branch
of the Academy loves making interesting picks for the nominees. Some of the
best movies with only one Oscar nomination come from the Screenplay nods. None
of the last 20 winners of the Original Screenplay Oscar has won it without at
least one precursor nomination.
Adapted Screenplay
BAFTA -
Adapted Screenplay - Winner
WGA -
Adapted Screenplay – Nominee
Spike Lee is
winning an Oscar. This is the most likely place for it to win.
BAFTA -
Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
WGA -
Adapted Screenplay – Winner
I’d trust the WGA
win as a precursor if the Spike Lee meta-narrative wasn’t so strong.
BAFTA -
Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
Golden
Globes - Screenplay - Nominee
WGA -
Adapted Screenplay – Nominee
It’s the only
nominee with a nomination from the WGA, Golden Globes, and BAFTA. Barry Jenkins
won for Moonlight. Another win wouldn’t be crazy.
BAFTA -
Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
WGA -
Adapted Screenplay – Nominee
Of the four jobs
Bradley Cooper had on the film (star, director, co-producer, co-writer), writer
is the last one mentioned.
Unless Gods and
Monsters got a WGA Nomination back in 1998*, 19 of the last 20 Adapted
Screenplay Oscar winners had at least one precursor nomination. Let’s be happy
with the minor miracle that this was nominated at all.
*It’s hard
to track down some of these older guild nominations.
No comments:
Post a Comment