The Best Picture race has never been less certain. I
said that in 2018 and 2016 too. In 2017, I felt pretty confident then picked
the wrong winner with absolute conviction. There hasn't been a certain
winner going into the ceremony since The Artist won for 2011. This year,
literally all 8 nominees feel like they have a chance to win, so I'm going to
do a series on why they won't (and how they could). These will drop as each
nominee runs out of precursor awards to learn anything from.
Next up is the massively successful Queen biopic
that apparently has no director.
This is only my second post, and I'm already
regretting the decision to include this "Similar Winner" section.
There's not a good comparison for Bohemian Rhapsody among Best Picture
winners. Million Dollar Baby was a surprise movie in the 2004/2005 Oscar
season. It came on late and strong. It was also carried by its performances and
didn't have much love leading up to the ceremony, only winning the DGA Award
among the Big 8 precursor awards.* Similarly, Bohemian Rhapsody is
carried by Rami Malek's performance and only has two minor Big 8 wins (Golden
Globe - Best Drama Movie, Eddie Award for Dramatic Film Editing). The movie
didn't come out of nowhere like Million Dollar Baby. Rather, it managed
to defy prognosticators every step of the way by never fading out.
*Golden Globe - Best Drama or Comedy Film (1), BAFTA -
Best Film (2), Producers Guild - Best Feature (3), SAG - Best Ensemble (4), Directors Guild
- Best Director (5), Writers Guild - Best Original or Adapted Screenplay (6), Editors
Guild - Best Drama or Comedy Film Editing (7), American Society of Cinematographers
- Best Cinematography (8).
Path to Victory:
I think Bohemian Rhapsody is unkillable. I
really do. The per-production was messy. It went through a lot of people (I
think Sasha Baron Cohen was signed on at one point) before finally landing on
Rami Malek with Brian Singer directing. Singer was fired with only a couple
weeks left shooting the film. I thought the movie would bomb until a couple
weeks before it was released. Then the reviews came out, and they were very
mixed, to say the least. Still, the movie made over $800 million worldwide.
More and more stories came out about allegations of sexual misconduct from
director Brian Singer. Somehow, his connection to the movie hasn't been toxic.
Rami Malek keeps getting praise for his work in the lead role. No matter what
critics say, audiences love the movie. No matter what awful accusations come
out about Brian Singer, the cast and crew have successfully separated the movie
from its director. It received key guild nominations from the SAG, PGA, and
Film editors. There is broad support for the film and no clear front runner for
Best Picture.
So, the path to victory is the Oscar preferential
ballot and the ability to be Teflon from controversy. Without getting too much
into the details, the preferential ballot rewards movies that are generally
more liked than divisive ones. It's possible to win without being anyone's
first choice. If that Live-Aid scene at the end is the last thing all the
voters watch before casting their votes, then Bohemian Rhapsody could
surprise a lot of people.
Why That Won't Work:
It is impossible to be the underdog the entire time.
Bohemian Rhapsody has been defying the odds since the beginning. The
troubled production. Historical inaccuracies. Criticism from the LGBT+
community. A director who is getting the Voldemort treatment. It's even had to
contend with an internet full of assholes like me who won't accept how
forgiving people are being of the movie because of how much they like Queen's
music. I'm not sure how it has lasted this long in the awards season, but I'm
sorry to tell you that it ends now. Bohemian Rhapsody won't win the
Oscar for Best Picture. Loving Queen's music and Rami Malek's performance isn't
enough*. Bohemian Rhapsody doesn't have a directing or screenplay Oscar
nomination. No movie has won without at least one of those two in the last 50
years. Probably longer, but that's where I stopped. And it isn't like either
were snubs. No one was going to award Brian Singer for directing. Again, that
man is toxic right now. And even the most ardent fan of the movie wouldn't
praise that screenplay.
*Side thought: How has Malek's performance withstood
the fact that he didn't do the singing? I know there's more to the performance
than the singing, but that's the kind of thing that would normally be a
disqualifier for awards. The opposite has certainly been true. Russell Crowe
still gets grief for a not-that-bad Les
Miserables performance because he didn't sing that well. Lady Gaga's
performance I guarantee is helped by the fact that she is a great singer in the
movie. Wasn't the singing the appeal of Jaimie Foxx, Reece Witherspoon, and
even Jeff Bridges when they won? I don't get it.
I was actually going to use My Fair Lady as a counter-point to explain how
Rami Malek has managed to withstand that, but it turns out Audrey Hepburn (who
also had someone else sign for her) wasn't even nominated for My Fair Lady
despite being the star of a movie that won 8 Oscars. So, that only helps my
initial point. Can someone please explain why Rami Malek gets a pass?
I like to refer to the "Big 8" awards a
lot, which I've listed above. They are the best Oscar indicators out there for
Best Picture, and they aren't very favorable for Bohemian Rhapsody. The
last 20 Oscar winners have all had at least 6 "Big 8" nominations. Bohemian
Rhapsody has only four. Shockingly, one of the four isn't the BAFTA.
Freddie Mercury is a British icon, so that lack of a nomination is pretty
damning. The BAFTA normally loves to give extra love to the most British Oscar
contenders. Bohemian Rhapsody does have two Big 8 wins, which is more than a
lot of other nominees. Sadly, the Golden Globe for Best Drama Film and the Eddy
for Editing of a Dramatic Feature aren't the best Oscar harbingers, and
winning two Big 8 awards isn't historically more significant than one. The
nominee count matters more than the win count.
Look, even critically adored music biopics in the
past haven't fared well in the Best Picture race (unless I'm forgetting about
wins for Ray, Walk the Line, What's Love Got to Do with It,
La Bamba, or The Buddy Holly Story*). More people have told me
they liked Bohemian Rhapsody than have told me it was good, which is a
key distinction. The precursor love reflects this. It's missing key Oscar
nominations and guild nominations. By the time it gets to voting for winners,
just liking certain elements isn't enough to call it the best. It never has
been. No movie with direction and writing this ignored has ever won Best
Picture. That's incredibly important.
*You can count Amadeus if you want, but that's a mighty stretch.
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