I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
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Previously: Cinematography
Supporting Actor
Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe - Award presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
SAG - Screen Actors Guild Award
…the Golden Globes have nominated the Oscar winner 19 times.
…the Golden Globe winner has also won the Oscar 12 times. Three cases of shifting categories makes this more like 12/17 (71% accuracy) rather than 12/20.
…SAG has nominated the Oscar winner 19 times.
…the SAG winner has matched the Oscar winner 15 times. Three cases of shifting categories makes this more like 15/17 (88% accuracy) rather than 15/20.
…BAFTA has nominated the Oscar winner 17 times.
…the BAFTA winner has matched the Oscar winner 14 times. Two cases of shifting categories makes this more like 14/18 (78% accuracy) rather than 14/20.
…the Oscar winner has won one or more of the BAFTA award, SAG award, or Golden Globe 19 times.
All those 19s are because of Marcia Gay Harden and Pollack. And, by “shifting categories”, I means someone was nominated as a lead by one group and supporting by another. It throws off a lot of acting nomination records.
So, I can say with reasonable certainly, that the Oscar winner this year will need at least one precursor nomination or win, unless it’s a Pollack year and she doesn’t. Sigh.
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actress – Winner
Since I’m guessing anyway, I’ll point to the fact that Regina King wins Emmys all the time despite being in shows that no one watches. Winning an Oscar for an underappreciated movie wouldn’t be all that different. She was the critical favorite for the award and she had a solid Golden Globe acceptance speech.
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actress - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actress - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actress – Winner
The fact that Weisz managed to overcome vote-splitting and win the BAFTA sets up a pecking order among the Favourite costars. And vote-splitting doesn’t have to get in the way of an Oscar win. Catherine Zeta Jones beat Queen Latifa, both nominated for Chicago from 2002. She was a bit more dominant throughout that award season though.
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Normally when someone gets nominated for the Oscar after being ignored elsewhere the general response is either “Really, [insert name] got nominated?” or “Oscar voters must really love [insert movie name]”. De Tavira is more the latter category, but really, people responded like they forgot they were allowed to pick her. She’s gained some steam in the last leg of the campaign. Her and her co-nominee from Roma have been everywhere on the circuit and everyone seems to like them. The fact that none of the precursor awards have agreed with each other (the SAG award went to Emily Blunt who wasn’t even nominated anywhere else) means the race is wide open. I think a lot of people will default to Roma when they aren’t sure what else to pick.
Amy Adams (Vice)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actress - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actress - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actress – Nominee
Adams is due an Oscar by now. She doesn’t really deserve it for this role, but that has never really mattered in Oscar history. The only problem with the idea of Adams winning an “it’s her time” Oscar is that none of the precursors went her way. You’d think some group would want to be the first on the bandwagon before the Oscars.
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actress - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actress - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actress - Nominee
Stone won everything just two years ago for La La Land. No one is in a hurry to make her a two-time winner. For whatever reason, people have decided that Weisz is ahead of her in The Favourite. She could still win if it’s simply a matter of the British wanting to award the Brit and the Americans* wanting to award the American.
*The Oscar membership has increased international membership greatly in the last few years, but they are still predominantly American.
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