I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
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Previously:
Documentary
Production Design
Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe – Award Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
Original Score
This is a mess. The precursor awards are normally pretty reliable here. The Golden Globes and BAFTA have both nominated the Oscar winner 17 of the last 20 years. The Golden Globe winner has matched the Oscar winner 11 times. The BAFTA winner has matched the Oscar winner 10 times. Together, the Oscar winner has been nominated for the BAFTA or Golden Globes 19 times. The Oscar winner has also won the BAFTA or Golden Globe 17 times. Little of this matters this year though. Both the BAFTA award and Golden Globe went to films that weren’t even nominated for the Oscar. The one time that’s happened in the last two decades was 2004, when Finding Neverland won the Oscar. That movie was nominated for both the BAFTA and Golden Globe, so that's something.
If Beale Street Could Talk
BAFTA - Original Score – Nominee
I’m going on a limb here. Beale Street didn’t get a lot of Oscar love on nomination morning. The score was ignored entirely at the same Golden Globes that gave Regina King a Supporting Actress award for the film. I loved this film’s score though, and I look at this as a make-up call for Nicholas Brittell’s score for Moonlight losing two years ago. Oscar voters don’t normally think that way, but maybe they will this year.
Isle of Dogs
I’m going on a limb here. Beale Street didn’t get a lot of Oscar love on nomination morning. The score was ignored entirely at the same Golden Globes that gave Regina King a Supporting Actress award for the film. I loved this film’s score though, and I look at this as a make-up call for Nicholas Brittell’s score for Moonlight losing two years ago. Oscar voters don’t normally think that way, but maybe they will this year.
Isle of Dogs
Golden Globe - Original Score – Nominee
BAFTA - Original Score – Nominee
Original Score is among the most insular awards at the Oscars. It tends to nominate the same people over and over again and award them in kind. Given that Isle of Dogs has nominations from both the Golden Globes and BAFTA, I’ll look to Alexandre Desplat’s 10 Oscar nominations and 2 wins to say he’s a good bet to win again. This could also be seen as the one chance to award Isle of Dogs for something.
Mary Poppins Returns
BAFTA - Original Score – Nominee
Original Score is among the most insular awards at the Oscars. It tends to nominate the same people over and over again and award them in kind. Given that Isle of Dogs has nominations from both the Golden Globes and BAFTA, I’ll look to Alexandre Desplat’s 10 Oscar nominations and 2 wins to say he’s a good bet to win again. This could also be seen as the one chance to award Isle of Dogs for something.
Mary Poppins Returns
Golden Globe - Original Score - Nominee
BAFTA - Original Score – Nominee
This is Marc Shaiman’s 7th nomination and he has yet to win. Statistically, he’s due.
BlacKkKlansman
BAFTA - Original Score – Nominee
This is Marc Shaiman’s 7th nomination and he has yet to win. Statistically, he’s due.
BlacKkKlansman
BAFTA - Original Score – Nominee
Terrence Blanchard has been making music for assorted Spike Lee movies since Malcolm X 27 years ago. Like most things with BlacKkKlansman, his first nomination is long overdue. However, I don’t recall hearing anyone single out the film’s score when praising it. That’s anecdotal but damning nonetheless.
Black Panther
Terrence Blanchard has been making music for assorted Spike Lee movies since Malcolm X 27 years ago. Like most things with BlacKkKlansman, his first nomination is long overdue. However, I don’t recall hearing anyone single out the film’s score when praising it. That’s anecdotal but damning nonetheless.
Black Panther
Golden Globe - Original Score – Nominee
I’ve loved Ludwig Göransson’s work since he was making music for Community. He’s long overdue his first nomination. Regarding the music for Black Panther though, more of the love has been directed to Kendrick Lamar’s “All the Stars”.
I’ve loved Ludwig Göransson’s work since he was making music for Community. He’s long overdue his first nomination. Regarding the music for Black Panther though, more of the love has been directed to Kendrick Lamar’s “All the Stars”.
Original Song
The Original Song category is light on precursor awards. There’s the Golden Globe song award and that’s it. That’s fine, because the strict rules the Oscars have for the award make the field unpredictable anyway. The Golden Globe award isn’t that reliable. It’s only nominated the Oscar winner 12 of the last 20 years, although it’s currently on a 6 year run. The two awards have only matched winners 6 of 20 times. To really give you an idea of the unreliability of the Golden Globe award, keep in mind that Frozen’s “Let It Go” lost the award to some song from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom.
A Star Is Born "Shallow"
Golden Globe - Original Song – Winner
As A Star Is Born’s Best Picture hopes have faded, everyone has rallied around the idea that at least Lady Gaga will win for co-writing this. “Shallow” is a legitimate hit song and has quickly established itself as a karaoke staple. In five years, the Oscars will look pretty silly if this doesn’t win.
Black Panther "All The Stars"
As A Star Is Born’s Best Picture hopes have faded, everyone has rallied around the idea that at least Lady Gaga will win for co-writing this. “Shallow” is a legitimate hit song and has quickly established itself as a karaoke staple. In five years, the Oscars will look pretty silly if this doesn’t win.
Black Panther "All The Stars"
Golden Globe - Original Song – Nominee
People love the hell out of this song. However, the movie came out so long ago and the song didn’t have the same pop culture permeation as “Shallow”. If any song can beat “Shallow” it’s “All the Stars” but I don’t see it happening.
Mary Poppins Returns "The Place Where Lost Things Go"
People love the hell out of this song. However, the movie came out so long ago and the song didn’t have the same pop culture permeation as “Shallow”. If any song can beat “Shallow” it’s “All the Stars” but I don’t see it happening.
Mary Poppins Returns "The Place Where Lost Things Go"
There is no favorable comparison between the
songs in Mary Poppins Returns and the original movie. That will do “The
Place Where Lost Things Go” no favors. It isn't competing against
"Shallow". It's competing again "Chim Chim Cher-ee".
RBG "I’ll Fight"
RBG "I’ll Fight"
The history of songs from documentaries being
nominated for the Original Song Oscar isn’t pretty. The song from An
Inconvenient Truth did win for 2006, but I think we all know that only
happened because three Dreamgirls songs cancelled each other out.
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs “When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings”
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs “When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings”
It’s a fun nomination. It won’t win and that’s
OK.
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