Why A Star Is Born Won’t Win Best Picture

The Best Picture race has never been less certain. I said that in 2018 and 2016 too. In 2017, I felt pretty confident then picked the wrong winner with absolute conviction. There hasn't been a certain winner going into the ceremony since The Artist won for 2011. This year, literally all 8 nominees feel like they have a chance to win, so I'm going to do a series on why they won't (and how they could). These will drop as each nominee runs out of precursor awards to learn anything from.

And now, the movie that’s hoping the fourth time’s a charm for Oscar glory.

Most Similar Best Picture Winner: Argo

In regard to this section, there are two tiers of movies: the ones that really have no reasonable chance to win Best Picture and the ones I’m just playing Devil’s Advocate for. A Star Is Born is in the former category. The Argo comparison is obvious. Both films were early Best Picture frontrunners after making a splash in early October. They both have Hollywood leading men getting behind the camera to direct who were snubbed by the directors’ branch despite getting nominated elsewhere. In their own ways, they are even each love letters to film history. There are some key differences though. A Star Is Born has more Oscar nominations. Its two leads both have Lead Acting nominations. It was a much bigger hit than Argo. However, Argo has it beat in some key ways: more guild wins and less direct competition.

Path to Victory:

People like me love to overthink the mechanics of the Best Picture preferential ballot. I’ll explain the ballot more in my overall Best Picture post in a few days, but the general idea is that a movie doesn’t have to be every voter’s top pick to win. It could win by being the top 2 or 3 on the most ballots in a split field. The preferential ballot is something that could benefit A Star Is Born more than virtually any other film.

ASIB was the early and commanding frontrunner for Best Picture in October. It had a pretty perfect mix of elements. It’s about country music but features one of the biggest pop stars in the world. It had the story of Lady Gaga’s acting breakthrough*. There’s Sam Elliot as the overlooked character actor finally getting his due. It had Bradley Cooper making his last step on his path to becoming Clint Eastwood. It’s an old Hollywood movie through a modern lens. There was no scandal behind the movie. Nothing in the movie was all that problematic.

*If you ignore the fact that she already won a Golden Globe for American Horror Story a few years ago.

Other challengers have appeared for Best Picture in the months since ASIB came out, but no movie has received as much across the board support. ASIB is the only movie this year with 8 “Big 8” nominations*. That means that when every major precursor award voting body thought “What was the best film this year?” they all included ASIB. There is no better sign that a film will be toward the top of a lot of ballots than that. Despite all the Best Picture favorites that have come and gone, ASIB is the one that’s been there the whole time.

*Golden Globe - Best Drama or Comedy Film (1), BAFTA - Best Film (2), Producers Guild - Best Feature (3), SAG - Best Ensemble (4), Directors Guild - Best Director (5), Writers Guild - Best Original or Adapted Screenplay (6), Editors Guild - Best Drama or Comedy Film Editing (7), American Society of Cinematographers - Best Cinematography (8).

Why That Won’t Work:

Despite those Big 8 nominations, unless something unexpected happens with the WGA award tomorrow, ASIB will have 0 wins. In a year in which [so far] 5 different movies have won Big 8 awards, ASIB didn’t break through once. That’s a definitive “always a bridesmaid” performance.

It’s also missing some key Oscar nominations. The plethora of acting nominations are nice and the adapted screenplay nod is key for any Best Picture winner. But, Bradley Cooper was left out of the Director field and the film wasn’t nominated for Editing. I think the Film Editing correlation with Best Picture winners (37 of the last 38 winners) is a little overstated but there’s some merit to it. More importantly, going back at least 50 years, no Best Picture winner has won without 3 nominations between directing, acting, writing, and editing. A Star Is Born has just 2 and no momentum on its side.

Going back to the Argo comparison, the two films are going into Oscar night on very different footing. Argo won virtually every precursor award it could. No other movie even put up a fight. At first glance, the two films look very similar. Under any scrutiny they are undeniably different.