Oscar Predictions: Best Foreign Film

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.

I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

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Previously:

Documentary 

Production Design

Original Song and Score   

Film Editing

Cinematography 

Supporting Actor

Supporting Actress 
Animated Feature

Glossary:

BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

Golden Globe - Award presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association

Thanks to some quirks in the precursors, it’s been a while since the Foreign Film award felt locked up going into the Oscar ceremony. The last time the BAFTAs and Golden Globes agreed on a winner was 2013’s The Great Beauty. In the last 20 years, 4 of the 5 times the two agreed on a winner (and that movie was nominated for the Oscar), that movie also won the Oscar. The other time was when Life Is Beautiful lost to Central Station leading up to Oscar night. But, Life Is Beautiful was nominated for Best Picture, so precursors didn’t really matter. If one of the Foreign Film nominees has a Best Picture nomination, it’s going to win this award. The Golden Globes have nominated the Oscar winner 16 of the last 20 years. I won’t even bother giving the BAFTA numbers. Foreign Films for them often have different years than the Oscars. For example, Son of Saul won the Oscar for 2015 but wasn’t BAFTA-eligible until 2016.

Roma

BAFTA - Foreign Language Film - Winner

Golden Globe - Foreign Film – Winner

Roma is the favorite to win Best Picture. If it doesn’t win the Foreign Film Oscar, that would be plain stupid.

Cold War

BAFTA - Foreign Language Film – Nominee

Some people are wondering if Oscar voters may try to spread the wealth and vote for Cold War here and Roma for Best Picture. Voters do love this film. It had Director and Cinematography nominations too. It would be a shame for it to lose everything just because it has the misfortune of coming out the same year as Roma.

Never Look Away

Golden Globe - Foreign Film – Nominee

If a Foreign Film nominee manages to pick up any other nominations (Cinematography, in this case) that’s a good sign for it. But, again: Roma.

Shoplifters

BAFTA - Foreign Language Film - Nominee

Golden Globe - Foreign Film - Nominee

This is a strong year for Foreign Film nominees. Several of these films would’ve been favorites to win virtually any other year.

Capernaum

BAFTA - Foreign Language Film - Nominee

Golden Globe - Foreign Film – Nominee

I don’t know much about this one, and the dominance of Roma and Cold War means I really don’t have to.