Next up, the movie that my spell check refuses to submit to.
Most Similar Best Picture Winner: Chicago
As I’ve been mentioning, this section has proven to be harder than I expected. Since Best Picture fields aren't normally this divided, most past winners have stronger profiles than the 2019 nominees. I’m going with Chicago because that’s also a female-led Oscar winner about rivals competing for the favor of a fickle audience. The Favourite’s strength comes from its three nominated stars, much like Chicago. This isn’t a perfect comparison at all. The two films are very different genres and Chicago had a stronger season leading up to the Oscars. It’s the best I could do though.
Path to Victory:
The Favourite has a wildcard factor that other nominees don’t: it’s not Writers' Guild of America Award eligible. A lot of film screenplays aren’t eligible for the WGA Award. Plenty of Best Picture winners had screenplays that weren’t WGA eligible. When a film is eligible though, winning the award is pretty important. Before last year, when The Shape of Water lost the WGA award to Get Out, the last time a movie with a WGA eligible screenplay lost the WGA award was The Return of the King back in 2003. The screenplay is the foundation of any movie, and Oscar voters realize this. Of the last 50 Best Picture winners only 1 has won without getting an Oscar nomination for its screenplay. That one exception was Titanic, and that exclusion sure feels fluky in hindsight. So, we really don’t have a great idea of how much voters love the screenplay for The Favourite. We know they love the three lead actresses who have been nominated at every stop. Yorgos Lanthimos quietly got a Best Director nomination. In fact, The Favourite is one of only three Best Picture nominees this year to get the four key Oscar nominations (Directing, Acting, Editing, and Screenplay).
So, my argument is that The Favourite has been hiding in plain sight all along. It’s as well credentialed as any nominee. It has won big precursor awards (like the ACE Editing award), and the WGA ineligibility adds an air of mystery about where it stands.
*Golden Globe - Best Drama or Comedy Film (1), BAFTA - Best Film (2), Producers Guild - Best Feature (3), SAG - Best Ensemble (4), Directors Guild - Best Director (5), Writers Guild - Best Original or Adapted Screenplay (6), Editors Guild - Best Drama or Comedy Film Editing (7), American Society of Cinematographers - Best Cinematography (8).
Why That Won’t Work:
I could break down a lot of minutia -- The Favourite only has 5 “Big 8” nominations thanks to its WGA ineligibility. The only Big 8 win that it has (ACE – Film Editing – Comedy/Musical) is among the weakest precursor indicators). Having all four key Oscar nominations isn’t more significant that having just three -- These things do matter is some way.
What I’d rather point out is that The Favourite lost the BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Arts) award for Best Film. The BAFTA don’t always vote for the “most British film”. Just last year, the decidedly American Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri won, after all. What I will say though, is that if the most British Best Picture Oscar nominee doesn’t win the BAFTA, that’s a very bad sign for that film. It’s no coincidence that The King’s Speech and Shakespeare in Love won the BAFTA award. The fact that Roma won the BAFTA for Best Film, even though The Favourite had the most nominations and most wins overall, is damning.
If I want to throw in some armchair sociology too, female-led films have a hard time winning Best Picture. The Shape of Water technically did it last year. Before that though, I guess it was Chicago 16 years ago. I mean, only 2 of the last 20 Best Picture winners also won the Lead Actress Oscar*.
*I’ll admit, that’s not a great statistic. A Best Picture/Lead Actor combo has only happened 4 of 20 times, so that's a weak gender preference.
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