Why BlacKkKlansman Won’t Win Best Picture

The Best Picture race has never been less certain. I said that in 2018 and 2016 too. In 2017, I felt pretty confident then picked the wrong winner with absolute conviction. There hasn't been a certain winner going into the ceremony since The Artist won for 2011. This year, literally all 8 nominees feel like they have a chance to win, so I'm going to do a series on why they won't (and how they could). These will drop as each nominee runs out of precursor awards to learn anything from.

And now it’s time for the Spike Lee joint.

Most Similar Best Picture Winner: The Departed

It turns out that this section only works for two Best Picture nominees and BlacKkKlansman (BKKK, from now on) isn’t one of them. The reason I went with The Departed is easy though. In a divided 2006 Best Picture race, The Departed rode to victory on the back of the idea that Martin Scorsese was too important to not have a Best Picture win. Of course, The Departed had a lot more precursor wins than BKKK, but I’ll get to that.

Path to Victory:

The argument for BKKK is twofold.

1) Spike Lee has been around forever, making films at a rate that rivals Woody Allen. Despite making highly venerated films like Do The Right Thing and Malcolm X and having one of the most diverse film catalogs of any director ever, this is the first time he’s ever been nominated for Best Director or has a Best Picture nominee. I think we collectively overestimate the power of an “it’s his turn” narrative during awards seasons, but when everything else breaks right, it can be a deciding factor. Which brings me to…

2) The Best Picture field is spread so thin that it’s harder to read the precursors than usual. No film has dominated the “Big 8”* precursor awards. 5 different Best Picture nominees have won a “Big 8” award. The WGA awards didn’t go to any Best Picture nominees. So, when nothing is dominating the wins, look to the nominations. BKKK has 7 “Big 8” nominations. The only one it’s missing is the ASC award, which is the least important of the 8 by the numbers. In addition to that, BKKK has all the key Oscar nominations (Director, Acting, Screenplay, Editing).

*Golden Globe - Best Drama or Comedy Film (1), BAFTA - Best Film (2), Producers Guild - Best Feature (3), SAG - Best Ensemble (4), Directors Guild - Best Director (5), Writers Guild - Best Original or Adapted Screenplay (6), Editors Guild - Best Drama or Comedy Film Editing (7), American Society of Cinematographers - Best Cinematography (8).

Combine those 2 pieces together, and you have a movie with broad support across the assorted precursor groups and guilds, a Best Picture field without a clear top tier, and a respected filmmaking who is overdue a win.

Why That Won’t Work:

There’s one thing I can’t get past. BKKK has no wins. It lost every single “Big 8” award it was nominated for. In fact, the only significant win I can find in any precursor is a BAFTA win for Adapted Screenplay. Spike Lee can’t even ride the “he’s overdue” narrative that far. He’s Oscar nominated for the screenplay, so Oscar voters can get him his Oscar by awarding him that and voting elsewhere for Best Picture. I’m not sure that I buy the “broadly appealing” argument, even with the preferential ballot that the Best Picture award uses. I mean, weren’t The Shape of Water, Moonlight, Birdman, and 12 Years a Slave all auteur picks? Spotlight winning is the only recent Best Picture winner that I’d put more under the “broadly appealing” label.