Oscar Predictions: Best Director

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.

I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

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Previously:

Documentary 

Production Design

Original Song and Score   

Film Editing

Cinematography 

Supporting Actor

Supporting Actress 
Animated Feature 
Foreign Film 
Visual Effects
 

Glossary:

BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

Golden Globe Award - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association

DGA Award - Director's Guild of America

The DGA have nominated the last 20 Oscar winners. 19 for the BAFTAs (Sorry Million Dollar Baby) and Golden Globes (Sorry The Pianist). The DGA winner also won the Oscar 17 times. Only 10 for the BAFTAs. 11 for the Golden Globes. All three agreeing on a winner isn’t a guarantee that the director will also win an Oscar. Ben Affleck won the BAFTA, Golden Globe, and DGA awards for Argo and didn’t even get nominated for the Oscar. Ang Lee won all three for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon then somehow lost to Traffic. Otherwise, winning all three is a reliable indicator.

Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)

DGA - Director - Winner

BAFTA - Director - Winner

Golden Globes - Director – Winner

Cuarón is winning this. I’m not bold enough to predict some last-minute surge for someone else. Rather, I’d like to pause for a moment to reflect yet again on this bizarre dominance by Mexican directors. If Cuarón wins this, that means 5 of the last 6 Best Director winners would be one of these three Mexican directors born within three years of each other. I dig it.

Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)

DGA - Director - Nominee

BAFTA - Director - Nominee

Golden Globes - Director – Nominee

Before this year, Spike Lee had never been nominated for Best Director. He never had a film nominated for Best Picture. He has yet to win a competitive Oscar and had a paltry collection of nominations for anything before BlacKkKlansman. He’s just about the greatest living director not to have an Oscar*. The “it’s his time” narrative has gained steam. Now it’s a matter of how much momentum it has. He’s the favorite to win the Adapted Screenplay Oscar. Will that be enough? Or will they need to give him Best Director and Best Picture as well? He’s the only man who can take it from Cuarón.

*He did win an Honorary Oscar a couple years ago, but that doesn’t count in the same way.

Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)

BAFTA - Director – Nominee

Cold War is getting a strong late surge. It showed up in a couple nomination lists that people didn’t expect. I don’t think that will turn into any wins, at least not here.

Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)

BAFTA - Director - Nominee

I’m not a fan of most of Lanthimos’ films, but I don’t mind this nomination. There is nothing to suggest he can win this though.

Adam McKay (Vice)

DGA - Director - Nominee

Golden Globes - Director – Nominee

The Big Short was far more beloved than Vice. That year, McKay was going against Alejandro González Iñárritu, who had won already the year before. If McKay couldn’t win under those conditions, then there’s no chance he wins for a more divisive film and against competition with much more compelling narratives.