I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
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Previously:
Foreign FilmVisual Effects
Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Original Score and Song
Original and Adapted Screenplay
Lead Actor
Lead Actress
Director
*Picture*
Animated Feature
Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
CAS - Cinema Audio Society Awards
Golden Reel - Motion Picture Sound Editors Award
It's hard to decide how to handle the sound awards. Different years, voters seem to follow different strategies. The most common is to pretend Sound Mixing and Sound Editing are the same thing and give both to the same movie. That's happeded 10 of the last 20 years. Another favorite is "Bullets and Broadway", i.e. Sound Editing goes to a war movie and Sound Mixing goes to a music movie (Zero Dark Thirty/Les Miserables, American Sniper/Whiplash, Letters to Iwo Jima/Dreamgirls). Then there's something like last year, Arrival got editing, Hacksaw Ridge got mixing, which I can't make any sense out of.
The precursor awards can be a little confusing. The BAFTA award is simply for Sound, combining the two awards. It's slightly more reliable to cal the mixing award. It's matched the Sound Mixing Oscar winner 12 of the last 20 years (currently 9/10) and has nominated the Oscar winner 19 times (only missing Dreamgirls in 2006). As a Sound Editing predictor, it's only 9/20 for wins and 16/20 for nominations.
The Cinema Audio Society is the Sound Mixers Guild. Their award has only matched half the Oscar winners out of the last 20. It has nominated 19 of the last 20 winners (only missing Whiplash in 2014).
When the CAS and BAFTA agree with each other, like this year, that's led to an Oscar 7/9 times. The two exceptions were years when the same movie swept both Sound Editing and Mixing.
The Golden Reels (handed out by the Motion Picture Sound Editors) break sound editing into a number of categories with no central award. What matters is that the Oscar winner for Sound Editing has been nominated for at least one Golden Reel 19/20 years and has won at least one Golden Reel 13/20 years.
Sound Mixing
BAFTA - Sound - Winner
CAS - Sound Mixing - Winner
I'm predicting Dunkirk will be a big time winner in the technical categories. That almost has to include the sound awards.
Baby Driver
BAFTA - Sound - Nominee
CAS - Sound Mixing - Nominee
On the off chance that voters care to differentiate between the two sound awards (which seems unlikely, given that the same five films were nominated for both), Baby Driver is an obvious choice. The way that the sound is mixed directly into the action on screen is about as good as it gets.
Blade Runner 2049
BAFTA - Sound - Nominee
If I'm wrong about Dunkirk owning the technical categories, Blade Runner 2049 could dominate instead.
The Shape of Water
BAFTA - Sound - Nominee
CAS - Sound Mixing - Nominee
Maybe it's a sweep for arguably the Best Picture favorite. I doubt it.
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
BAFTA - Sound - Nominee
CAS - Sound Mixing - Nominee
As I've mentioned before, if The Force Awakens couldn't win, The Last Jedi won't.
Sound Editing
BAFTA - Sound - Winner
Golden Reel - Dialogue/ADR - Nominee
Golden Reel - Effects/Foley - Nominee
Golden Reel - Music - Winner
Same as what I said about Sound Mixing. Also, Oscar voters love giving this to war movies. Finally, it deserves the win.
Blade Runner 2049
BAFTA - Sound - Nominee
Golden Reel - Dialogue/ADR - Nominee
Golden Reel - Effects/Foley - Winner
Golden Reel - Music - Nominee
The sounds are so distinctive in this movie and there is across the board support for the Sound Editing by the guild and BAFTA voters, it appears.
Baby Driver
BAFTA - Sound - Nominee
Golden Reel - Dialogue/ADR - Nominee
Golden Reel - Effects/Foley - Nominee
Golden Reel - Music - Nominee
Keep in mind, Sound Editing isn't the sound version of Film Editing. That's actually Sound Mixing. So, if you are impressed with how the music in the movie literally syncs up to actions in the film, that's Sound Mixing. Sound Editing is the creation of sounds. That's less Baby Driver's forte. All that said, I'm not convinced most Oscar voters realize or care about this distinction.
The Shape of Water
BAFTA - Sound - Nominee
Golden Reel - Dialogue/ADR - Nominee
Golden Reel - Effects/Foley - Nominee
Golden Reel - Music - Nominee
Again, it's possible that I'm underestimating how much total love The Shape of Water has with voters.
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
BAFTA - Sound - Nominee
Golden Reel - Effects/Foley - Nominee
As I've mentioned before, if The Force Awakens couldn't win, The Last Jedi won't.
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