Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.

I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

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Previously:

Introduction & Best Documentary Feature

Foreign Film
Visual Effects

Production Design

Glossary:

BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association  Award

SAG - Screen Actors Guild Award

It's been a while since all the acting awards were this locked up. The last two years, supporting actor has been a relative question mark. Not this year. Let's check out some history before we get to that though. The Golden Globe and the SAG awards are about equally reliable. 18 of the last 20 Oscar winners at least had a Golden Globe nomination. The SAG has nominated the Oscar winner 19 of 20 times. The Golden Globe's have a slight edge with winners. The Golden Globe winner has also won the Oscar 13 times in 20 years. The SAG is slightly behind with 12*. The Oscar winner has won at least one of the three awards in 19 of the last 20 years. The only exception is James Coburn winning for Affliction back in 1998. However, there was no clear frontrunner that year.

*Technically, the SAG award is 12 for 19 over the last 20 years. Benecio del Toro had some crazy category hopping in 2000 that shouldn't count against them.

Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Golden Globes - Supporting Actor - Winner

SAG - Supporting Actor - Winner

BAFTA - Supporting Actor - Winner

When all three groups agree on a winner, they are 6/6 predicting the Oscar winner. There is no reason to think Sam Rockwell won't win. The Three Billboards backlash hasn't been strong enough to sway things in any meaningful way.

Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Golden Globes - Supporting Actor - Nominee

SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee

BAFTA - Supporting Actor - Nominee

The Florida Project wasn't embraced by the Academy the way I'd hoped. Dafoe's nomination is the only one for the movie and he's been coming up short to Rockwell every step of the way. If vote splitting between the two Three Billboards nominees leaves an opening, Dafoe has the right kind of performance to get a surprise win.

Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)

Golden Globes - Supporting Actor - Nominee

SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee

BAFTA - Supporting Actor - Nominee

We take Richard Jenkins for granted. He's probably due a "career appreciation" award sometime soon. That said, he's probably the 5th or 6th thing that comes up when people praise The Shape of Water. He only wins this if The Shape of Water has a historic night, which is unlikely.

Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee

BAFTA - Supporting Actor - Nominee

It's hard to see someone voting for Three Billboards and not picking Rockwell.

Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)

Golden Globes - Supporting Actor - Nominee

Just giving Plummer the nomination is enough of a middle finger to Kevin Spacey. Giving Plummer the award is too much. Besides, he got his "career achievement Oscar" in 2011. There's no pressure now.