Oscar Predictions: Best Original Score and Song

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.

I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

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Previously:

Introduction & Best Documentary Feature

Foreign Film
Visual Effects

Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress

Cinematography

Glossary:

BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association  Award

Original Score

The Musical Score category is one of the more entrenched groups. The guys who get nominated tend to get nominated a lot. It doesn't always take a lot of nominations to win though. Justin Hurwitz won on his first try last year for La La Land. Stephen Price won in 2013 for Gravity with his first nomination. Mychael Danna too in 2012 (Life of Pi). It's been a pretty even split between veterans and newbies lately. The precursor awards offer good guidance. Both the Golden Globes and BAFTAs have nominated the eventual Oscar winner 17 of the last 20 years. The only year that neither nominated the Oscar winner was Finding Neverland in 2004. The BAFTA winner is 9/20 matching the Oscar winner, although that includes 7 of the last 9. The Golden Globe is slightly more accurate at 11/20. One or the other has matched the Oscar winner 15 of the last 20. More importantly for this year, when both agree on a winner, 5 of the last 6 times, that movie also won the Oscar. The only exception was in 2005 when BAFTA and Globes went with Memoirs of a Geisha and the Oscars picked Brokeback Mountain.

The Shape of Water

Golden Globe - Original Score - Winner

BAFTA - Original Score - Winner

People sure love that score. This is Alexander Desplat's 9th nomination and he won in 2014 for The Grand Budapest Hotel. Unlike acting awards, voters don't seem to care if a composer has won recently, so I doubt that will get in his way.

Dunkirk

Golden Globe - Original Score - Nominee

BAFTA - Original Score - Nominee

This is nomination #11 for Hanz Zimmer who hasn't won since The Lion King back in 1994. I'm pretty sure people remember the bullets more than the score in Dunkirk, so I'd be surprised to see this win.

Phantom Thread

Golden Globe - Original Score - Nominee

BAFTA - Original Score - Nominee

This is Johnny Greenwood's first nomination. His filmography is almost entirely Radiohead videos and Paul Thomas Anderson films. It's nice to see his work in Phantom Thread get nominated. I'm still trying to figure out the There Will Be Blood snub back in 2007. I don't think the Academy is ready to coronate him yet.

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Golden Globe - Original Score - Nominee

This is Carter Burwell's 2nd nomination and that'll have to be enough for now.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

I'm starting to wonder if Oscar voters keep nominating John Williams just to see if his nomination count (51) can ever catch up to Walt Disney's record (59). Regardless, I love his work for Star Wars, so I'm always happy to see him nominated for it.

Original Song

With only one precursor award, the Golden Globe, there isn't much to help predict the Oscar winner for Original Song. The Golden Globe award has been useful recently though. It's matched the Oscar winner 4 of the last 5 years.

The Greatest Showman "This Is Me"

Golden Globe - Original Song - Winner

I'm going with a hunch on this. I ignored the Golden Globe win for "Writing's on the Wall" from Spectre in 2015 and opted for the song from the bigger celebrity (Lady Gaga) and missed that call. The Greatest Showman has been a stealth hit, turning an $8 million opening weekend into $150 million and counting (which is unheard of these days). "This is Me" has been all over Olympic advertising. While not a "Let in Go"-level anthem, it has stuck around.

Coco "Remember Me"

Golden Globe - Original Song - Nominee

Speaking of "Let it Go", the one time in the last 5 years that the Golden Globe winner didn't win the Oscar too was when a song from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom beat "Let it Go" for the Golden Globe. Of course, there was no way "Let it Go" was going to lose the Oscar, and it didn't. "Remember Me" seems like the obvious Oscar winner. I think we're conditioned from the 90s to assume the Disney Animation anthem will always win this award. In truth, Disney has only won this 4 times in the last 20 years (Frozen - 2013, Toy Story 3 - 2010, Monsters Inc - 2001, Tarzan - 1998). Last year, the rousing "How Far I'll Go" from Moana written by the chosen one, Lin-Manuel Miranda failed to win. Songs from Tangled, The Princess and the Frog, Enchanted, Cars, and Hercules all managed to lose. I'm probably trying too hard to talk myself out of a "Remember Me" win (which would certainly get my vote if I had one), but I'm not that convinced it's the frontrunner.

Mudbound "Mighty River"

Golden Globe - Original Song - Nominee

The Golden Globe nomination isn't nothing.

Call Me By Your Name "Mystery of Love"

Of the two Sufjan Stevens songs prominently featured in this movie, "Mystery of Love" wasn't the one that I loved. I don't think I'm alone in that thought.

Marshall "Stand Up for Something"

Sometimes you just have to find a fifth nominee no matter where it's coming from.