The
Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have
all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my
multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the
Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order
the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night.
That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me
luck.
Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and
Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood
Foreign Press Association Award
WGA - Writers Guild of America Awards
The WGA is very userful for figuring out the Oscar winner...except for
when it isn't. To be eligible for a WGA award, one must belong to the Writers
Guild of America. Immediately, you'll notice that foreign films or scripts from
foreigners are immediately excluded. A lot of animated films too for some
reason. Pixar never gets WGA nominations or even consideration. There's always
a handful of potential Oscar players not present for the WGA Award. It's not
too bad this year. Only one Oscar film is ineligible. Too bad it's the frontrunner
for the Original Screenplay Oscar. It's also difficult to find lists of which
films were actually eligible for the WGA Award in past years. So far, my
research has only gone back to 2010. In that time, the WGA winners for
Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay predict the Oscar winner every time
that the movie is eligible for the Oscar. In other words: In 2014. The Imitation Game was eligible for the WGA, won the WGA Award for Adapted
Screenplay, then won the Oscar. In 2014, Birdman wasn't eligible for the WGA
Award and wasn't nominated, The Grand Budapest Hotel won the WGA Award for
Original Screenplay, but Birdman went on to win the Oscar.
The Golden Globes combine the screenplay award into one award, so it's
tricky judging its usefulness. 15 of the last 20 years, the one Golden Globe
field has included both the Original and Adapted Screenplay Oscar winner. The Golden
Globe winner has also won either the Original or Adapted Screenplay Oscar 15
times. All that means the Golden Globes are moderately useful.
The BAFTA Awards are a little easier to decipher. They've nominated
the eventual winner of the Original and Adapted Screenplay Oscars 18 of the
last 20 years each. Of the combined 4 misses they've had, only one was in the
2000s (Her in 2013). The BAFTA winner for Original Screenplay has matched the
Oscar winner 11 the last 20 times. Adapted Screenplay only 7 of 20 times.
Although, it should be noted that the Moonlight screenplay last year was
handled oddly, so the Adapted Screenplay numbers a slight bit higher.
Original Screenplay
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Winner
Golden Globes - Screenplay - Winner
WGA - Ineligible
The WGA ineligibility adds a little question to this. There isn't any
precedent I found of a movie winning two of the screenplay awards, being ineligible for
the third, then losing the Oscar. Three Billboards is pretty safe.
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
WGA - Original Screenplay - Winner
When Three Billboards wasn't in the field, the award went to Get Out.
I wouldn't read too much into the lack of a Golden Globe nomination. They
didn't care much for Get Out. I have it this high because there's a lot of talk
of Get Out possibly pulling off a Best Picture win. If it does, it almost has
to have another win somewhere else. This is by far the most likely place.
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
Golden Globes - Screenplay - Nominee
WGA - Original Screenplay- Nominee
I have a hard time believing that if The Shape of Water wins Best
Picture, it would be part of some Titanic-esque night. If one movie is
positioned to sweep though, it would be The Shape of Water.
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
Golden Globes - Screenplay - Nominee
WGA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
There's a good chance that Lady Bird could come away with no wins on
Oscar night, which would be a shame.
WGA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
I'm pretty sure they're just thrilled to be nominated.
Adapted Screenplay
BAFTA - Adapted Screenplay - Winner
WGA - Adapted Screenplay - Winner
The lack of a Golden Globe nomination is odd, given that this film matches the
Hollywood Foreign Press Association's demographic pretty well. It's a
weak field though. I feel confident about this one.
Golden Globes - Screenplay - Nominee
BAFTA - Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
WGA - Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
Academy voters do love Aaron Sorkin. There is no heat on this movie
though. If Jessica Chastain couldn't get a Lead Actress nomination, that
indicates a massive lack of support.
WGA - Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
Perhaps the sheer novelty of a Marvel movie being nominated could
sneak it through to a win. That would be a big ask.
WGA - Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
The narration is mixed into things nicely. The BAFTAs ignored more
about this movie than just the screenplay, so I won't read too much into that.
I'd call the screenplay more competent than exceptional though.
WGA - Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
This sure feels toxic after the James Franco allegations came out.
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