Oscar Predictions: Best Lead Actress

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.

I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

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Previously:

Introduction & Best Documentary Feature

Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress

Cinematography

Original Score and Song
Original and Adapted Screenplay 
Lead Actor

Glossary:

BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association  Award

SAG - Screen Actors Guild Award

Even I'm bored by these acting categories. I suppose Lead Actress has the most suspense of the four. It's still pretty minimal. Let's run through the numbers real quick anyway. Both the Golden Globes and SAG have nominated all of the last 20 Oscar winners. BAFTA is way behind at 14. What's intimidating is that the Globes have matched the Oscar winner 18 times (technically out of 19, not 20). The SAG award 16. The BAFTA 12. When all three go to the same actress, she's won the Oscar all 8 times.

Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Golden Globes - Lead Actress Drama - Winner

SAG - Lead Actress - Winner

BAFTA - Lead Actress - Winner

I've already covered why Frances McDormand will win this in the intro. The only thing that could hurt her is that she doesn't give a fuck if she wins. Sometimes voters like to know you want it.

Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)

Golden Globes - Lead Actress Drama - Nominee

SAG - Lead Actress - Nominee

BAFTA - Lead Actress - Nominee

Oscar voters fell for a silent performance in 2011's The Artist, so there is precedence, and Hawkins' performance is less of a gimmick*. However, I think voters are way more interested in a performance by a woman who's angry as hell and taking it out on the men in power getting in her way. You know, but the Oscars aren't political.

*Can you tell I'm not a big fan of The Artist?

Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)

Golden Globes - Lead Actress Comedy - Winner

SAG - Lead Actress - Nominee

BAFTA - Lead Actress - Nominee

Ronan already has three Oscar nominations and she's younger than Emma Stone, Brie Larson, and Jennifer Lawrence. At this point, if she doesn't have an Oscar of her own by the time she's 30, I'll be genuinely surprised.

Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)

Golden Globes - Lead Actress Comedy - Nominee

SAG - Lead Actress - Nominee

BAFTA - Lead Actress - Nominee

I suppose the recent Winter Olympics don't hurt her odds.

Meryl Streep (The Post)

Golden Globes - Lead Actress Drama - Nominee

I'm excited to see how unreachable she can make her record Oscar nomination tally. No one's in a hurry to give her that fourth win yet.