Oscar Predictions: Best Director

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.

I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

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Previously:

Introduction & Best Documentary Feature

Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress

Cinematography

Original Score and Song
Original and Adapted Screenplay 
Lead Actor
Lead Actress

Glossary:

BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe Award - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
DGA Award - Director's Guild of America

"In the case of the surprise Moonlight Best Picture win though, [a Best Director] win would be a requirement. " - Me (2/23/2017)

Just a little reminder that I'm wrong more often than my degree of certainly would suggest. Then again, right before that, I said of the Best Director Oscar "there's no reason to think from the precursors that Jenkins will pull ahead of Chazelle", so maybe I am smart.

The BAFTA and Golden Globe awards are nice. Both have nominated 19 of the last 20 Oscar winners. The BAFTA and Oscar winner have matched 9 times. The Golden Globe and Oscar winner have matched 11 times.

But, the DGA award is the big one. The DGA has nominated the Oscar winner 20 of the last 20 times and matched winners 17 times. One of the 3 misses was due to the baffling Oscar snub of Ben Affleck for Argo. Another was when the Globes, BAFTAs, and DGA picked three different winners in 2002. The third case is the only one that worries me. In 2000 all three precursors went to Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon), then the Oscar went to Steven Soderbergh (Traffic). Even more confusing for that year: neither movie won the Oscar for Best Picture. That kind of split wouldn't be crazy this year. I'd say three director's have air tight cases for deserving and Oscar win and the other two wouldn't earn jeers from me if either won.

Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)

DGA - Director - Winner

BAFTA - Director - Winner

Golden Globes - Director - Winner

As I pointed out already, the trifecta is no guarantee. 5 of the last 6 times it's happened, the movie also won the Oscar*. I'd be stupid to pick against del Toro. This leads me to wondering what the hell was in the water in Mexico between 1961-1964? A del Toro win would mean that 4 of the last 5 winners were Mexican directors (Alfonso Cuarón - 2013, Alejandro G. Iñárritu - 2014, 2015, del Toro - 2017). I'm starting to wonder if Damien Chazelle is really from Rhode Island.

*Technically 5/7 but I'm not counting the Argo year since Affleck didn't get nominated for the Oscar.

Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)

DGA - Director - Nominee

BAFTA - Director - Nominee

Golden Globes - Director - Nominee

I would be shocked if The Shape of Water wins Best Picture without del Toro winning this. If The Shape of Water doesn't win, this is a real possibility. There are a lot of people who think a nomination was overdue for Nolan. He gets even more of the credit for Dunkirk than del Toro has received for The Shape of Water. He's del Toro's only obvious competition.

Jordan Peele (Get Out)

DGA - Director - Nominee

Del Toro is enough of a favorite that the rest of this space is reserved for me acting as amateur sociologist. Even in the case of a Get Out surprise win for Best Picture, I don't predict a Jordan Peele win for Best Director. Get Out is fully credited to Peele. When people talk about his direction, it's more from a place of surprise. Despite everything, Get Out is still seen as either a horror movie or a comedy. Either has a hard time getting taken seriously. Mainly though,Peele is seen as a writer-first and foremost. A Get Out win would be like Spotlight in 2015 getting Best Picture and Screenplay but not Director.

Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)

DGA - Director - Nominee

Hopefully Gerwig will have many nominations in the future.

Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)

This is only his second nomination for Best Director. That surprised me. What would surprise me more is if he won this time.