Oscar Predictions: Best Production Design

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.

I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

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Previously:

Introduction & Best Documentary Feature

Foreign Film
Visual Effects

Glossary:

BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

ADG - Art Director's Guild Award

I'd like to drum up some suspense for the Production Design award, however, as you'll see in a moment, it's already pretty locked up this year. Let's take a look at the precursor award history though. The Art Designers Guild is 20 for 20 nominating the eventual Oscar winner and has matched winners with the Oscars 13 times in that span. That is a bit inflated because the ADG splits that into 15 nominations and 3 awards (Contemporary, Period, and Fantasy Production Design) The BAFTA is a bit below with 19 nominee and 8 winner matches. Of the 9 times in the last 20 years when the BAFTA and ADG winners have matched, the same movie also won the Oscar 6 times. Of those three misses, only once did the Oscar go to a movie that won in another of the ADG's categories.

The Shape of Water

BAFTA - Production Design - Winner

ADG - Period Production Design - Winner

It's hard to go against a double winner. That's only the beginning though. Guillermo Del Toro's films are uniformly praised for their production design. Pan's Labyrinth won in 2006 with even less of a consensus than The Shape of Water. The Shape of Water has the most Oscar nominations this year and looks very likely be a big winner in the technical awards which would include Production Design almost by default..

Blade Runner 2049

BAFTA - Production Design - Nominee

ADG - Fantasy Production Design - Winner

The Fantasy Production Design winner is the most likely film to spoil things for The Shape of Water. The best comparison I can find to Blade Runner 2049 is Mad Max: Fury Road tearing through the technical awards despite having no chance at any of the high profile awards. That comparison falls apart though because Blade Runner 2049 has nowhere near as much support as Fury Road did. Fury Road won more Oscars (6) than Blade Runner 2049 is even nominated for (5). Also, it seems like Blade Runner 2049's cinematography is taking some of the credit for what the production design does in the film.

Beauty and the Beast

BAFTA - Production Design - Nominee

ADG - Fantasy Production Design - Nominee

Production Design is one of those awards that normally wins for having the most rather than the best. That's probably why Baz Lurhman's films do so well here (Moulin Rouge, The Great Gatsby).  In that case, Beauty and the Beast is an obvious winner. It has the most color and biggest sets.

Dunkirk

BAFTA - Production Design - Nominee

ADG - Period Production Design - Nominee

Production Design this tame rarely wins. Lincoln did it in 2012. Before that, it was The Aviator in 2004. People are too used to seeing WWII recreated to pay this much attention.

Darkest Hour

BAFTA - Production Design - Nominee

ADG - Period Production Design - Nominee

Oh yeah, and there's another movie set in the exact same time period in the same part of the world that's also nominated. Thankfully, Dunkirk and Darkest Hour don't go head-to-head in many categories. It's going to hurt their already slim odds here greatly.