Oscar Predictions: Best Film Editing

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.

I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

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Previously:

Introduction & Best Documentary Feature

Foreign Film
Visual Effects

Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Cinematography

Glossary:

Eddie -  American Cinema Editors Award

BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

Film Editing is always one of the more challenging awards to predict, because it's hard to know how voters are judging it. One school of thought is that the best Film Editing is when you don't even notice it. How can you vote for something you don't notice though? Other people could see it as the film with the least fat to trim or simply the shortest movie. There's a recent trend of bunching the award with the Sound Editing and Mixing winners. Then there's the reputation of the Film Editing nomination for being one of the major indicators of a Best Picture win. 

What I do know is this. The last 20 Oscar winners have been nominated for an Eddie Award. That's not very helpful this year, because all five Oscar nominees have Eddie nominations. The winner of an Eddie has also won the Oscar 15 of the last 20 times, which is pretty good. Since 19 of the last 20 Oscar winners were nominated for the Drama Film Editing award, that puts the winner of that award in a good position. Meanwhile, the BAFTA award has nominated the Oscar winner 19 of the last 20 times, only failing in 2011, when The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo became one of the most stunning winner in the last two decades. The BAFTA winner has only matched 9/20 winners, although that includes 8 of the last 10.

Dunkirk

Eddie - Drama Film Editing - Winner

BAFTA - Film Editing - Nominee

The Eddie award is the best indicator of what will win the Oscar. While Film Editing isn't as tied to war movies as the Sound awards are, in recent years, Film Editing and Sound Mixing have been in lockstep. The two have matched each other the last 4 years. With Dunkirk looking good to win the Sound awards, Film Editing is likely to follow. By more practical measures this makes sense as well. Dunkirk is a lean 1h46m long and plays heavily with cuts between three different timelines. That's too irresistible for voters to ignore.

Baby Driver

BAFTA - Film Editing - Winner

Eddie - Comedy/Musical Film Editing - Nominee

Yes, the BAFTA winner has called 8 of the last 10 Oscar winners including the last 3. Look a little closer though. Those two times when it didn't match the Oscar winner: Rush in 2013 and Senna in 2011. Both were films about driving, like Baby Driver. Those Top Gear-loving Brits get car blind. The fact that Baby Driver lost the Eddie award to I, Tonya hurts as well. It wouldn't be crazy to see Baby Driver win. It has flashy editing that's heavily tied to the music and sound mixing. If voters get bored by war after giving this to Hacksaw Ridge last year, Baby Driver is a worthy alternative.

I, Tonya

Eddie - Comedy/Musical Film Editing - Winner

It's rare that the Oscar goes to a Comedy or Musical for Film Editing. It's only happened once in the last two decades: Chicago, on its way to Best Picture glory. That said, I, Tonya did win the Eddie. It also features a narrative that jumps around a lot as well as figure skating scenes that comfortably work around Margot Robbie not actually being an Olympic caliber figure skater.

The Shape of Water

BAFTA - Film Editing - Nominee

Eddie - Drama Film Editing - Drama

Despite the Best Picture winner almost always having a Film Editing nomination, that movie doesn't win the Film Editing Oscar all that often. Only 8 of the last 20 times. The last time it did it was Argo in 2012, which was a while ago. In a year with much more obvious Film Editing candidates, the Oscar frontrunners aren't likely to win.

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BAFTA - Film Editing - Nominee

Eddie - Comedy/Musical Film Editing - Nominee

What I said about The Shape of Water applies to Three Billboards too. The only reason The Shape of Water is higher is because Drama Films are more likely to win than Comedies. Then, again, the Golden Globes called Three Billboards a drama...Regardless, neither look good to win this.