Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.

I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

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Previously:

Introduction & Best Documentary Feature

Foreign Film
Visual Effects

Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress

Glossary:

BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

ACS - American Cinematographer Society Award

The precursors don't tell me as much as I'd like. The BAFTA award has nominated 20 of the last 20 eventual Oscar winners. The ACS isn't far behind at 19 of 20. That isn't very helpful this year because the ASC matches the Oscar nominees exactly and the BAFTA matched 4 of 5. The ACS winner is a bit more accurate, predicting the Oscar winner 11 times. The BAFTA has only done that 8 times. When both groups agree on a winner, 7 of the last 9 times that film has also won the Oscar, so that is no golden ticket.

Blade Runner 2049

BAFTA - Cinematography - Winner

ASC - Cinematography - Winner

It's very difficult to pick against Blade Runner 2049. I'm tempted to say that it's Roger Deakins' time to win. He's been nominated 14 times now and has never won. The "it's his time" narrative matters a lot more for the major awards though. I'm basing this pick more on the fact that Blade Runner 2049's cinematography is so damn central to the film.

The Shape of Water

BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee

ASC - Cinematography - Nominee

I mentioned that 2/9 times the BAFTA and ASC agreed on a winner and the Oscar voters went another way. Well, one of those times was in 2006, when Pan's Labyrinth snuck in and won the Oscar over Children of Men. In other words, Guillermo del Toro's movies have done this before. If The Shape of Water really is the technical awards behemoth that it appears to be, Cinematography is likely to go its way.

Mudbound

ASC - Cinematography - Nominee

On paper, Mudbound looks like the least likely to win after failing to get a BAFTA nomination. I'm forgiving that, partly because this wouldn't be the first time the BAFTAs ignored a movie as thoroughly American as Mudbound. More importantly though is that Mudbound's Rachel Morrison is the first woman ever nominated for Cinematography by the Academy. That has received a lot of press. Also improving her visibility is her work as director of photography on Black Panther. That probably doesn't matter much.  I think Oscar voters are collectively too lazy to think in these somewhat strategic terms, but I've been wrong before.

Dunkirk

BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee

ASC - Cinematography - Nominee

There are a lot of places where I'm likely to underestimate Dunkirk's chances. Cinematography isn't one of them. The last war movie to win this was Saving Private Ryan almost 20 years ago (unless you want to count Master and Commander in 2003).

Darkest Hour

BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee

ASC - Cinematography - Nominee

At the end of the day, this is The Gary Oldman Movie. The other nominations are nice, but that's all the voters are going to consider it for when ballots are submitted.