Oscar Predictions: Best Foreign Film

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.

I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

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Previously:

Introduction & Best Documentary Feature

Glossary:

BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association  Award

The Foreign Film precursors aren't making it any easier than the Documentary Feature ones this year. Neither the BAFTA nor Golden Globe award tells me much. The Golden Globes have at least nominated the eventual Oscar winner 15 of the last 20 years. This year's Golden Globe winner though, In the Fade, wasn't even nominated for the Oscar. The BAFTA award is almost useless as an Oscar indicator because a foreign film in England is different than a foreign film in the U.S. As a result the is the third year in a row that the BAFTA Foreign Film winner was eligible for the Oscar the previous year. So, I can't use the winners of either to tell me anything this year. 

To add to my difficulty, every single foreign film that had any buzz going into the end of the year failed to get nominated. Angelina Jolie's First They Killed My Father looked like an easy way to still award a familiar face. In the Fade, with a Cannes-approved performance by Diane Kruger could've carried itself to a win on the strength of her performance. The French film BPM, the buzziest of all foreign films this year, didn't even make the Oscar shortlist before nomination ballots went out. That leaves a group of Oscar nominees that's hard to get excited about.

A Fantastic Woman

Golden Globe - Foreign Film - Nominee

I learned a lesson last year. I erred on the side of critical approval and ignored the social climate at the time. Hollywood was fired about about the Trump inauguration. His travel ban led to the Iranian director of The Salesman not able then not willing to attend the Oscar ceremony. That bump in support and attention helped decide a Foreign Film field that had no clear front-runner to begin with. I can see a similar motivation helping A Fantastic Woman which stars a transgender actress.

The Insult

Or maybe voters aren't through with the Middle East. This is a Lebanese drama about a court case between a Lebanese Christian and a Palestinian refugee after they have an emotional exchange. I'm sure you could find more than a few parallels with things in the US if you wanted,

Loveless

BAFTA - Foreign Language Film - Nominee

Golden Globe - Foreign Film - Nominee

This Russian film is the only Oscar nominee with both a BAFTA and a Golden Globe nomination. It's just a marital drama though that feels like it could've been released any year.

The Square

Golden Globe - Foreign Film - Nominee

I went back six years and tracked the Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic scores of all the Foreign Film Oscar nominees. There does seem to be a threshold for the winners. Last year's winner, The Salesman, had the lowest scores is each (83 RT and 86 MC) of the last six winners. The Square, at 82 and 72, is well below those numbers and has no political tie-in to help it. Winning the Palm d'Or at Cannes doesn't mean much to Oscar voters.

On Body and Soul

I haven't heard anyone say a word about this movie.