Oscar Predictions: Best Lead Actor

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.

I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

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Previously:

Introduction & Best Documentary Feature

Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress

Cinematography

Original Score and Song
Original and Adapted Screenplay

Glossary:

BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association  Award

SAG - Screen Actors Guild Award

The Golden Globes have nominated the eventual Oscar winner 19 of the last 20 years. The one blemish is Roberto Benigni winning for Life is Beautiful in 1998*. They've also awarded the man who went on to win the Oscar 14 times (13 of the last 14 too). This is a little inflated, since they have two lead actor awards, but still.

*Side thought: A lot of the Golden Globes big misses are foreign performances/films. The Globes are chosen by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. What's up with that?

The BAFTA Award lags a little behind. They've nominated the Oscar winner 17 times and matched winners 12 times in the last two decades. You can normally see it coming when it's going to happen. In 2013, they had no love for Dallas Buyers Club, but no one doubted that Matthew McConaughey was a lock to win the Oscar. However, we don't have to worry about it this year.

The SAG Award is ultra-reliable. They nominated the last 20 Oscar winners and matched winners 15 of those times. Before last year's unexpected split, they called the last 12 Oscar winners. I suspect this year will begin a new streak.

Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

BAFTA - Lead Actor - Winner

Golden Globes - Lead Actor Drama - Winner

SAG - Lead Actor - Winner

The trifecta isn't a lock. It's resulted in an Oscar win 8 of the last 9 times it's happened. Look a little closer though and the exception makes a little more sense. In 2000, Russell Crowe won a surprise Lead Actor Oscar for Gladiator. In 2001, he won the BAFTA, SAG, and Globe for A Beautiful Mind. Coming fresh off a win the year before, voters didn't feel as compelled to follow suit, so the award went to Denzel Washington instead.

This year is a much different story. I always bring up the "It's his time" Oscar. That's when nothing else matters than the public saying this actor should win. It's why no one doubted Leo's ability to win for TheRevenant. It's how Meryl Streep turned a middle of the road (for her) performance in The Iron Lady into her third win. The people have spoken. Gary Oldman is due an Oscar. It helps that this really is a powerhouse performance.

Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)

BAFTA - Lead Actor - Nominee

Golden Globes - Lead Actor Comedy - Nominee

SAG - Lead Actor - Nominee

This is me hedging. There's a very real chance that Get Out could win Best Picture. The demographics of the Academy have changed a lot over the last couple years (age, race, gender, size). I'd still call Kaluuya a massive underdog, but if the change in the voting body causes some unexpected results, this would be a good place to look. Kaluuya also gets the tiniest of bumps for being in The Black Panther at the same time that voting is going on. It's probably only a .1% boost. Any bit helps.

Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)

BAFTA - Lead Actor - Nominee

Golden Globes - Lead Actor Drama - Nominee

SAG - Lead Actor - Nominee

Chalamet is the prototypical "obvious nominee". Everyone picks him, saying things like "he's got a great career ahead of him" and "this is the first of many". There's no urgency to making sure he wins now. Call Me By Your Name has been one of the quieter Best Picture nominees in this last phase.

Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)

BAFTA - Lead Actor - Nominee

Golden Globes - Lead Actor Drama - Nominee

This is not a Best Actor winning performance. Day-Lewis willingly steps aside and lets the women in the movie make it their own. He's good and still nominated on reputation if nothing else. In a decade, no one will be saying he was robbed like some do about Gangs of New York.

Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel Esq.)

Golden Globes - Lead Actor Drama - Nominee

SAG - Lead Actor - Nominee

Everyone, welcome Denzel to the "Nominated on Reputation" club. Please take your seat between Meryl and Daniel. That used to be Jack Nicholson's chair but he doesn't need it any more.