I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
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Previously:
Foreign FilmVisual Effects
Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Original Score and Song
Original and Adapted Screenplay
Lead Actor
Lead Actress
Director
*Picture*
Animated Feature
Sound Editing and Mixing
Costume Design
Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
M&HG - Hollywood Makeup and Hair Stylist Guild Award
At this point, I think we're all tired of listening to me talk about Oscar Picks. After Suicide Squad won last year, I don't think people are taking the award all that seriously. There isn't a bad nominee this year, which makes this a lot less perilous. The BAFTA award is weirdly reliable. It's only nominated 14 of the last 20 winners, but 13 of those have won the Oscar. So, if an Oscar nominee wins the BAFTA, it's very likely to get an Oscar too. The Makeup & Hairstyling Guild has only given out award four years before this year but has already established itself as an Oscar harbinger. The last 4 Oscar winners have also won at least one of the guild's awards.
Darkest Hour
BAFTA - Makeup - Winner
BAFTA - Makeup - Winner
M&HG - Period/Character Makeup - Winner
M&HG - Period/Character Hairstyling - Nominee
For the reasons I covered in the last paragraph, Darkest Hour looks nearly unbeatable. The BAFTA winner almost always goes on to win the Oscar when possible. The guild is currently 4/4 with one of their winners getting an Oscar and Darkest Hour is the only Oscar nominee that won a guild award.
BAFTA - Makeup - Nominee
M&HG - Contemporary Makeup - Nominee
M&HG - Contemporary Hairstyling - Nominee
It's hard to see how voters could look past the Gary Oldman transformation, but if they do, Jacob Tremblay's transformation is pretty good too.
BAFTA - Makeup - Nominee
With only three nominees, it's hard to count anything out. That does lead me to ask, why is this the only award that still only gets three nominees regularly? Surely there must be enough films with makeup and hairstyling teams to warrant five nominees.
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