Oscar Predictions: Best Costume Design

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

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Previously:

Introduction & Best Documentary Feature

Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress

Cinematography

Original Score and Song
Original and Adapted Screenplay 
Lead Actor
Lead Actress
Director
*Picture*
Animated Feature 
Sound Editing and Mixing
 

Glossary:

BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

CDG  - Costume Designers Guild Award

The BAFTA have matched 9/20 Oscar winners and nominated 19/20 Oscar winners. Before missing last year, it was on an 8 year streak of matching the winner. I'm not sure if that's a fluke or not. The Costume Designers Guild have only been handing out awards for 15 years, but they've always nominated the eventual Oscar winner. They've also awarded the Oscar winner 9 times in those years. 

Phantom Thread

BATFA - Costume Design - Winner

CDG - Period Costume Design - Nominee

I'm very surprised to see that this didn't win the CDG award. The costuming is beautiful in this film. It's key to the plot, which will surely make Oscar voters more attentive to it. Besides, it seems like Phantom Thread will win at least one award after getting six nominations.

The Shape of Water

BATFA - Costume Design - Nominee

CDG - Period Costume Design - Winner

Beating Phantom Thread for the CDG Award is a decent-sized deal. One of the biggest correlations between Oscars is that the Production Design winner often gets the Costume Design Oscar, which sort of makes sense. Both are about dressing up in a lot of ways. The Shape of Water is a frontrunner for Production Design, so this could follow.

Beauty & the Beast

BATFA - Costume Design - Nominee

CDG - Fantasy Costume Design - Nominee

Last year I noted how Fantastic Beasts was essentially cheating by having both period costuming and fantasy costuming in it. Then it went on to win the Oscar in one of my bigger misses of the night. Beauty & the Beast can win in the same way. Voters love giving this to the most costuming and no film goes bigger and more colorful than this one.

Darkest Hour

BATFA - Costume Design - Nominee

I simply don't see it happening. The costumes, while seemingly accurate, aren't flashy enough.

Victoria and Abdul

No BAFTA nomination. No CDG nomination. No Oscar win.