The Emmys are over, so now it's time to look back. I'm going to break
this into two parts: My 2016 predictions for 2017 and my thoughts on
this year's winners.
Part 1: 2017 [Blind] Predictions:
Previous Editions:
2012 Predictions
2013 Predictions
2014 Predictions
2015 Predictions
2016 Predictions
Prediction: Julia Louis-Dreyfus fails to win a 6th consecutive Emmy for Veep
Reasoning: JLD was the first person to ever win five times in a row. Six is almost laughable, and surely, someone new will excite voters enough to go another way.
Reality: While Allison Janney moving up to Lead Actress for Mom made it a little more interesting, the overall competition wasn't enough for JLD to be dethroned. And, it's not like JLD wasn't the best performer.
Prediction: Full Frontal with Samantha Bee gets a Variety Talk Series nomination.Reasoning: It was surprising that it was snubbed in the first place. That had to be a fluke.
Reality: It was nominated and arguably in the mix to win. I'd also like to point out that I mentioned Colbert was likely to be nominated as well and he was.
Prediction: Kiefer Sutherland joins the Lead Actor field
Reasoning: The broadcast networks were due a Lead Actor in a Drama nomination and Keifer Sutherland (Designated Survivor) was a former winner for 24.
Reality: Well, I was right about the broadcast networks being due a Lead Actor in a Drama nomination (2, in fact). It just wasn't for Designated Survivor or Sutherland.
Prediction: Fargo win Outstanding Limited Series on the strength of Ewan McGreggor's Lead Actor winReasoning: There were no obvious contenders at the time to unseat Fargo's third season and Ewan McGreggor playing twins sounded like great Emmy-bait.
Reality: I should just stat away from Emmy predictions about Limited Series. It's getting more competitive every year and something in the winter is sure to surprise me. This year, FEUD and Big Little Lies knocked a weaker Fargo season down. And, I should get a big demerit because when I made this prediction, I'd already seen The Night Of and knew it would be eligible. The Night Of's Riz Ahmed ultimately beat McGreggor for the Lead Actor Emmy.
Prediction: Reality Competition will have a first time winner
Reasoning: The category is old and need of a shake up. RuPaul's Drag Race was picking up steam. It sounded like a sure thing.
Reality: Well, Drag Race did get that nomination. However, voters weren't ready to let go of The Voice.
Prediction: Hulu is still ignoredReasoning: Hulu hadn't had much luck in previous years and I don't think I knew enough about The Handmaid's Tale at the time to take it seriously.
Reality: The Handmaid's Tale won many for Drama Series, direction, writing, lead actress, and supporting actress, so what do I know? Even looking at overall nominations, Hulu jumped from 2 to 18 nominations.
Prediction: Netflix loses ground in the major nomination count (Drama, Comedy, Limited, Movie)Reasoning: They gained nominations every year since 2013. They were bound to take a slight step back at the very least.
Reality: Netflix had 16 nominations during the main ceremony in 2016. In 2017, they have 25. So, again, big miss by me. Mostly, I assumed that Stranger Things would go away by the time people got to voting, and even if it hadn't, it's not the kind of show that normally gets Emmy love in the first place.
Prediction: Keri Russell or Matthew Rhys wins for Lead on The Americans
Reasoning: The Americans increased its number of nominations the last couple years and, more recently, Emmy voting has been following a "we finally discovered it" pattern. Shows like Game of Thrones, Veep, and Breaking Bad all took a few seasons before becoming Emmy winners. It looked like The Americans was following the same path.
Reality: It took GoT, Veep, and Breaking Bad several seasons to win the overall series award. All of them got acting wins in their first season. The Americans didn't even get nominations in its first season. It didn't help that it also got lost in an unbelievably crowded April this year and had an uneventful season.
Prediction: Kate McKinnon isn't the only SNL cast member nominated.
Reasoning: McKinnon isn't the only good cast member. People were bound to notice.
Reality: I never thought to bake in the possibility of a potential President Trump bump. Lucky (?) for me it happened and SNL dominated the nominations, even getting two wins.
Prediction: Only 1 of the 8 Drama and Comedy Acting winners will repeatReasoning: A couple winners were guaranteed to gone and a few others felt like flukes to begin with.
Reality: 1/8 was too ambitious. Still, I was almost right. Only JLD and Kate McKinnon repeated.
I also want to include my overall thoughts of these predictions when I made them last year:
Ok, maybe these aren't that bold. They sound good right now. Then again, last year, I had no idea that Limited Series would become the strongest series category. I hadn't even heard of Master of None or Baskets. Blackish hadn't made "the leap" yet. And The Americans was still an Emmy outsider. A lot can change in a year.A lot did change in a year. I only got 1 out of 10 this year, which I'm pretty sure is the worst since I started in 2011/2012. Oh well. Check back Tuesday for my 2018 predictions. I need some time to lick my wounds.
Part 2: Thoughts on the 2017 Emmy Results
The Good
Donald GloverI would've been fine to hear Donald Glover give four acceptance speeches tonight. Two (Lead Actor, Directing) is fine though. He deserves whatever accolades anyone wants to give him. Seeing him finally getting major recognition would've been my favorite part of the night if not for...Elisabeth Moss
Fucking, finally! I still don't understand how she lost every year on Mad Men and once for Top of the Lake, just to add insult to injury. She should have a shelf of Emmys already inside an annex in her house where she keeps all the Golden Globe, SAG, People's Choice, Television Critics Association, Critics Choice, Online Film & Television Association, Satellite, Cable ACE awards she should've also won. This is a good start though.
Black Mirror: San Junipero
I picked this show up late and I'm glad I did. While I liked many of the other nominees, it was nice to see this stand-alone anthology show get some love in the TV Movie and writing categories.
The Bad
Reality CompetitionI really don't have anything against The Voice, but literally only three shows have ever won this award since it was created in 2003 (The Amazing Race, Top Chef, The Voice). It's time for voters to watch a few more shows. I really wanted to see something like RuPaul's Drag Race or American Ninja Warrior pull off an upset.
The Wins That Were Never Going to Happen
I didn't have a lot of problems with the ceremony. A lot of shows I liked won. Even ignoring all the snubs that I would've loved to see nominated in the first place, there were a frustrating number of nominees that I didn't even bother rooting for, because I knew they didn't have a chance. Mainly, I'm thinking of Carrie Coon on Fargo, the Better Call Saul episode "Chicanery", and The Night Of pilot.
The Meh
The Handmaid's TaleI liked the show. I don't think it was good enough to deserve the level of domination it had against the field. Then again, it was a pretty weak field overall for drama with all the delayed productions, snubs, and shows that ended last year.Veep
I don't like when people turn on a good show just because it's won a couple times. Veep wasn't as strong as it was the previous two seasons. It wasn't going against crazy-strong competition this year either. Maybe Atlanta or Master of None, but even huge fans (including myself) have to admit those are niche series. I'm pleased that voters didn't turn on Veep and that other deserving shows got some wins as well.
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