Emmy Picks: Supporting Actor and Actress

The Emmys have nearly arrived*. If you haven't picked up on how this goes from the last few years, let me explain. Over the next few days, I'll go through all the Primetime Emmy categories. I will order the nominees from most to least likely to win and explain why I think that. I'll also include a Biggest Snub because I like to complain, and I'll note My Personal Favorite to show how often I'd like to be wrong about my predictions.

*OK, technically, with the Creative Arts Emmys this past weekend, they already started, but most people don't care about those.


 First, I'd like to discuss something. Vote splitting has always been a theoretical problem for Emmy nominees. When multiple people from the same series are nominated, intuitively, that suggests the support for the show would be split when it comes to voting. On a weighted ballot, that's not actually a big concern. If two actors from the same show are your first and second pick, that doesn't leave a lot of room for a nominee from another show to swoop in and win instead. It's possible, but not mathematically as significant in a straight tally - the current Emmy voting system. When it's a straight tally, it gets a lot harder for nominees from the same show to win. Think about it. Six nominees. 40% of the voting body is in love with a specific show that has two people nominated and neither of those two actors is clearly better than the other (i.e. not like that year when Jim Parsons and Johnny Galecki were both nominated for The Big Bang Theory). If only one person was nominated, something close to that 40% of the vote would go to the one nominee, which would almost certainly be enough to win. By splitting that vote, it may only take a third nominee to get in the low 20s to win. This is all theoretical and we'll never know the actual final tallies, but it's a very real concern for the many shows with multiple nominations.

OK, time for the picks.
 
Previously:
2016 Picks | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 
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Creative Arts Emmy PicksEmmy B-Teams
Why You Should Dismiss the Emmys

Outstanding Supporting Actress - Comedy Series

[My Favorite] Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live - "Host: Dave Chappelle") (NBC) Remember how McKinnon opened the episode after Trump won and Leonard Cohen died by singing "Hallelujah" as Hillary Clinton? Even if the Emmy voting wasn't clearly steered by some anti-Trump sentiments, that would've been enough for McKinnon to repeat after last year's somewhat surprising win. McKinnon is so clearly the SNL MVP that I'm not even worried about vote-splitting.

Anna Chlumsky (Veep - "Groundbreaking") (HBO) This is Chlumsky's fifth straight nomination. There's no Allison Janney in her way again and the other two SNL nominees could siphon some votes from McKinnon. Even the dual Transparent nomination could cancel each other out. This is Chlumsky's best chance to win yet.

Judith Light (Transparent - "Exciting and New") (Amazon) Shelly Pfefferman's one woman show on the cruise boat is a terrific showcase moment from her submission episode. However, if Light couldn't win last year, I don't like her odds this year.

Vanessa Bayer (Saturday Night Live - "Host: Dwayne Johnson") (NBC) This is McKinnon's to lose. Perhaps Bayer could win as a send-off since she's leaving SNL. That's not how Emmy voters think though. Not for a first time nominee.

Kathryn Hahn (Transparent - "Life Sucks and Then You Die") (Amazon) Hahn is really great, but Light seems like the more likely Transparent actress to win.

Leslie Jones (Saturday Night Live - "Host: Tom Hanks") (NBC) Jones never has more to do in an episode than McKinnon. Bayer is more consistent. I think Jones is just happy to be nominated.

Biggest Snub: Allison Williams (Girls) (HBO) It was tough to pick just one snub. Zazie Beetz disappeared too much on Atlanta, otherwise, she'd be here. If SNL didn't already have three nominees, I'd suggest Aidy Bryant as a snub. I have to go with Allison Williams though, because she managed the bend between awful and great throughout the final season of Girls. She never let you love or hate Marnie for too long. Her in the finale especially was great. Even when she's helping, you kind of wish she wasn't.

Outstanding Supporting Actor - Comedy Series

Alec Baldwin (Saturday Night Live - "Host: Melissa McCarthy") (NBC) The resurgent popularity of SNL this season is so tied to Baldwin's Donald Trump that it's really hard to see this going to anyone but him.

Louie Anderson (Baskets - "Denver") (FX) Anderson managed to pull off a surprise victory last year. No doubt he benefited from the change in the voting structure, which rewards unique performances that don't get cancelled out by anyone doing similar work. Perhaps the one win is enough for voter complacency to set in.

[My Favorite] Tony Hale (Veep - "Judge") (HBO) Hale won in 2015 and 2013. "Judge" is a great episode for him. It wouldn't be shocking to see him return to Emmy glory.

Ty Burrell (Modern Family - "Grab It") (ABC) I'm pretty sure that Modern Family's time has passed. Burrell is a two time winner though (2014, 2011). He could have a late series win like David Hyde Pierce (Frasier)  or Brad Garrett (Everybody Loves Raymond) back in the day. It's unlikely but has precedent.

Tituss Burgess (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt - "Kimmy's Roommate Lemonades!") (Netflix) If a performance that big couldn't win in season one or two, then I have no reason to suspect that Emmy voters will change their minds in season 3.

Matt Walsh (Veep - "Chicklet") (HBO) There's five other supporting actors on Veep this season who did more than Walsh. I love Walsh and I love that Emmy voters are paying attention. At this point though, they are rubber stamping him.

Biggest Snub: Timothy Simons (Veep) (HBO) I chose Simons, but the list of snubs is long. Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine Nine) falling out of the field is ridiculous, because he's only honed his performance more as the shows gets older. Zach Woods isn't the stealth MVP of Silicon Valley anymore. He's just the MVP. For all the love that the SNL cast is getting, it baffles me that Kenan Thompson isn't nominated. He's the ultimate utility player. Andrew Rannells killed it in the last season of Girls. That man should have an Emmy just for that miserable White Men Can't Jump: The Musical tryout. Even though the Timothy Simons/Sam Richardson (Veep) pairing is gold and has been one of the most enjoyable things on any TV show for the last couple years, both of them were still great in a season that mostly kept them apart. I give Simons the edge as the biggest of the snubs only because he had more to do. Richardson is the king of making even the most throw-away line hilarious.

Outstanding Supporting Actress - Drama Series

[My Favorite] Thandie Newton (Westworld - "Trace Decay") (HBO) I'm not impressed by this list. That said, Maeve is the most undisputedly great character on Westworld and Newton got to show the most shades per episode.

Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things - "Chapter Seven: The Bathtub") (Netflix) People fucking love Eleven and this looks like the easiest way to secure a win for Stranger Things. That said, this is beyond unprecedented. Children are rarely ever nominated and Brown would be the youngest winner ever by at least a year. Freddie Muniz (2001) is the most recent example I could find and even he was 15 at the time. It's really damn hard for a young performer to win. None of the Cosby kids ever won. Fred Savage didn't win for The Wonder Years either. That is the only thing working against her though.

Chrissy Metz (This Is Us - "Pilot") (NBC) She doesn't even make the biggest mark in her submission episode. Obviously, there's some love for her performance, given her Golden Globe nomination. I'm not convinced she can win, but I've been wrong many times before.

Ann Dowd (The Handmaid's Tale - "Offred") (Hulu) I love Ann Dowd and I'd be very pleased to see her win a la character actress Margo Martindale in 2011. Am I crazy to think she's just not a significant enough character to win this?

Uzo Aduba (Orange Is The New Black - "People Persons") (Netflix) She won in 2015 and as a Guest Actress in 2014. I feel like her proven Emmy love is what got her this nomination. I don't expect it will be enough to get her a win.

Samira Wiley (The Handmaid's Tale - "Night") (Hulu) Wiley should've been nominated for Orange is the New Black instead. She could've won had she been nominated for that.

Biggest Snub: Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) (AMC) Pardon me while I mention Amy Brenneman from The Leftovers, who should've been part of across the board Leftovers nominations in all categories. However, the most inexcusable snub has to be Rhea Seehorn who is just incredible in BCS. She often has, on the surface, the dullest story in an episode and always makes it thoroughly engaging. I don't get how voters can notice the series enough for two other acting awards, writing, and directing and somehow miss what Seehorn is doing.

Outstanding Supporting Actor - Drama Series

[My Favorite] John Lithgow (The Crown - "Assassins") (Netflix) A transformative performance and a fantastic submission episode. Emmy voters managed to bungle the bottom of the ballot so much that Lithgow hardly has any competition. I want to call him a lock to win, but there's a sentimental favorite lurking.

Ron Cephas Jones (This Is Us - "Memphis") (NBC) This Is Us had an inconsistent season but Jones and Sterling K. Brown were almost always at the best parts of an episode. And, "Memphis" is the kind of submission episode that in past years has won many people Emmys against formidable competition.

Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul - "Witness") (AMC) Banks is so consistently and quietly good that it's hard to see him ever winning, especially if he couldn't win in 2015 with "Five-O".

Jeffrey Wright (Westworld - "The Well-Tempered Clavier") (HBO) Wright is always great and sold the hell out of his performance on Westworld.

Mandy Patinkin (Homeland - "America's First") (Showtime) He hasn't been nominated since 2014. Emmy voters have mostly forgotten about Homeland by now.

Michael Kelly (House Of Cards - "Chapter 64") (Netflix) Has there really been 64 episodes of that show? Kelly shouldn't be penalized for the tedious and ridiculous writing, but he will be.

David Harbour (Stranger Things - "Chapter Eight: The Upside Down") (Netflix) Which one is David Harbour? Is he one of the kids: Mike, Dustin, or Lucas? No...Oh, he must be Steve. No? Ok...Will's brother Jonathan? Oh - or was Will in enough episodes to count for supporting actor? Still no... Who? Jim Hopper. Really?

Yeah, I don't get this nomination.

Biggest Snub: Michael McKean (Better Call Saul) (AMC) Similar to supporting actress, I need to give Christopher Eccleston a shout out for The Leftovers but Michael McKean is the biggest snub. Just like with Seehorn, I'm not sure how BCS got so much award attention but failed to notice him. Was Chuck such a dick that no one wanted to vote for McKean? If anything, that makes him even more deserving.

Outstanding Supporting Actress - Limited Series Or Movie

Laura Dern (Big Little Lies - "Once Bitten") (HBO) This one is tough. The potential for vote splitting is high. Even though Shailene Woodley is essentially a lead, Dern gets to pack a lot into fewer scenes. The fact that she's "highly revered actress Laura Dern" helps too.

Regina King (American Crime - "Episode Three") (ABC) She's the two time reigning winner for her work in American Crime. She doesn't have to worry about vote-splitting hurting her either. Even if no one remembers about American Crime this year, she's still a force.

[My Favorite] Jackie Hoffman (FEUD: Bette And Joan - "More, or Less") (FX) Maybe I just love Mamacita too much, but I feel like Hoffman has the edge over her FEUD costar.

Judy Davis (FEUD: Bette And Joan - "And the Winner Is...(The Oscars of 1963)") (FX) Davis has won an Emmy before. She also has a couple of Oscar nominations to her name. That has to count for something.

Shailene Woodley (Big Little Lies - "Push Comes to Shove") (HBO) She's technically more of a lead on the show, but I think people still don't give her the credit she deserves as an actress. Next to Laura Dern, Reese Witherspoon, and Nicole Kidman, she still looks like the ABC Family star trying to look legitimate. I disagree with that line of thinking, but I think it's what will prevent her from winning.

Michelle Pfeiffer (The Wizard Of Lies) (HBO) I wouldn't be shocked if she won. This really is one of the more wide open fields thanks to some double nominations and no clear stand-out performance or show. 

Biggest Snub: Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Fargo) (FX) I'm double shocked. First, I would've called Winstead a lead on Fargo. Second, she should've been a lock to get nominated wherever she submitted. I love that Coon was nominated in the lead actress category. It should've been both of them though.

Outstanding Supporting Actor - Limited Series Or Movie

Alexander Skarsgård (Big Little Lies - "Living the Dream") (HBO) He has a big performance on a popular show. He's the lone nominee from the show in a category full of double-nominees The only thing that could hurt his chances are if people confuse him with his character too much and don't want to vote for a monster.

David Thewlis (Fargo - "Ther Narrow Escape Problem") (FX) Another single-nominee from his show in the category. Thewlis really delighted in playing this role and dominated any scene he was in. Something that does give me pause (other than Fargo's apparent dip in popularity with Emmy voters) is that Billy Bob Thornton couldn't win for season one playing a similarly big character.

[My Favorite] Stanley Tucci (FEUD: Bette And Joan - "Pilot") (FX) Of the two FEUD nominees, Tucci's acerbic take on Jack Warner is a little more showy. While vote splitting doesn't have to prevent someone from winning, that person needs to be like Sterling K. Brown last year: he needs to be clearly the best of the nominees. Tucci isn't that much better than Molina.

Michael Kenneth Williams (The Night Of - "The Art of War") (HBO) Maybe my corner of TV fandom is very isolated, but it sure feels like Michael Kenneth Williams should have an Emmy by now. That's not normally how Emmy voters think, but the larger the sample size gets, the more unlikely it is that he hasn't won.

Alfred Molina (FEUD: Bette And Joan - "Pilot") (FX) He was a true supporting character, often yielding scenes to the leads. I just don't see more people voting for him over Tucci.

Bill Camp (The Night Of - "Subtle Beast") (HBO) Bill Camp was terrific in The Night Of. I would have no issue with him winning. The problem is that this is a fairly small performance. Kind on like Jonathan Banks on Better Call Saul or Breaking Bad. As good as he is, it's more in the details than the spotlight moments.

Biggest Snub: Adam Scott (Big Little Lies) (HBO) There are actually weren't any huge snubs. Scott's is the biggest I could find and I'm not even that bothered by him not making the cut. Similar to the Nicole Kidman/Reese Witherspoon comparison that' I'll get to tomorrow, Scott suffers in terms of recognition because his story is tamer. I think he does great work in BLL, but attention-grabbing a being a wife-beating monster.