Outstanding Comedy Series
30 Rock (NBC)
The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Glee (Fox)
Modern Family (ABC)
The Office (NBC)
Parks and Recreation (NBC)
I checked the numbers for this.
Since 2000, here are the facts about the winner of Outstanding Comedy Series:
10 of 11 best comedy series have been nominated for directing or writing.
This includes 30 Rock, Modern Family, The Office
The one exception, Friends in 2002 which was stacked with Lead Acting nominations.
9 od 11 have had a lead actor/actress nominated.
This stat is moot thanks to Modern Family's no lead actor agreement.
Also, the only series with more acting, writing, and directing nominations than Modern Family this year was 2009 30 Rock, which ran away with the victory.
Let's do a breakdown.
In it's very nature, all shows stand a chance. No series was snubbed from major nominations like Family Guy in 2009 (special circumstances) or Scrubs in 2006, so all arguably have a chance.
If we go by the numbers, Parks and Rec has the worst chance to win with it's lone acting nomination.
The Office is not far behind with a lead actor nomination and a writing credit (both for the same episode).
Big Bang has two lead actor nominations which stacks up well against Glee's two supporting nominations and handful of guest acting spots (none of which won).
That makes it a two horse race between 30 Rock and Modern Family.
I think Big Bang's nomination is a good story and a fitting reward for the changes they made this season.
The Office's nomination is relying too heavy of one or two good episodes. This year was Carrell's goodbye, not the show's.
Glee had a real shot to win last year, but I knew it's novelty would wear off fast.
This past season of 30 Rock was a return to form, but last year felt more like a fall from grace than a fluke. It will be very telling if it pulls off a win this year.
That leaves (Dark Horse) (My Favorite) Parks and Recreation as my pick for dark horse contender. The lack of nominations is not the whole story. Amy Poehler is a known quantity amongst voters. The cast is undeniably strong top to bottom and lack of nominations says more about a lack of awareness by voters than it does about the actors' abilities.
It is going to be another good year for (Winner) Modern Family though. Going back to 1993 (the year cable broke into the nominations game with Larry Sanders Show), only one comedy has had more major nominations (Acting, Directing, Writing) than Modern Family (10, by the way). That show would be 30 Rock in 2009 (12). It's hard for me to see it losing.
Biggest Oversite: Community
This was a pretty strong year for comedies. Shows like Louie have started getting some love. Other FX shows It's Always Sunny and Archer have done well in the fringes. ABC has overlooked, quality shows like Cougar Town. Almost all the shows I love got nominated. I know asking for 4 nominations from NBC is a lot (although it happened as recently as 1998, when there was only 5 nominations), but Community is the most experimental show on TV and should be recognized for it. I know you can't boot Office of Carrell's goodbye season. Glee still has too many fans. And, I am happy for Big Bang, but it is a shame they was no room for this wonderful series.
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