Yeah. I need more to do on my days off.
Outstanding Drama Series
Boardwalk Empire (HBO)
Dexter (Showtime)
Friday Night Lights (The 101 Network/NBC)
Game of Thrones (HBO)
The Good Wife (CBS)
Mad Men (AMC)
Some numbers to start.
Since 2000, here are the facts about the winner of Outstanding Drama Series:
11 of 11 have been nominated for directing.
Only Boardwalk Empire and Game of Thrones.
11 of 11 have a supporting actor/actress nomination.
Mad Men, The Good Wife, Boardwalk Empire, and Game of Thrones.
10 of 11 have a writing nomination. (Only exception: Lost 2005)
Mad Men, Friday Night Lights, Game of Thrones
10 of 11 have a lead actor/actress nomination. (Only exception: 24 2006)
Mad Men, The Good Wife, Boardwalk Empire, Friday Night Lights. and Dexter
If I was to make a score card for this year based on that, it would look like this:
32 - Game of Thrones
32 - Boardwalk Empire
31 - Mad Men
21 - The Good Wife
20 - Friday Night Lights
10 - Dexter
What does this mean exactly? Nothing in the end. It indicates a few things though.
1) Mad Men has reason to be worried. It scores an 42 it's past three season. The other shows to do that in this time (Lost and Damages) had fewer nominations and the Directing and Writing were for the same episode.
2) Maybe Game of Thrones has a better shot than people give it credit for.
3) FNL and Good Wife may not have the proper footing for this.
Statistics only get you so far, especially for something as subjective as awards, so here's my opinion on the situation.
Dexter stands no chance. The season was lacking. Not to say it was bad, but not the kind of showcase needed to break through (4th season had a chance and should've won).
It seems like too many people are pushing too hard for The Good Wife to be a serious contender. I could be dead wrong on this, but if Marguiles couldn't even muster a win last year when it was virtually a lock, I'm selling on the series dethroning Mad Men.
Here's where it gets hard.
Despite the numbers working in it's favor, Game of Thrones doesn't even have it's network's backing. I'm not sure I believe the season was exceptional enough to win either, and I still think the true fantasy angle will hurt it in the end.
Critics really seem convinced that there is a chance that voters will suddenly acknowledge Friday Night Lights and send it off with a win. I think the nomination is the send off. Asking for it to go from perpetually ignored to upset, sentimental favorite winner, is asking a little much, don't you think? I'd love to see it happen though.
Sure, HBO is a nominations bohemoth and (Dark Horse) Boardwalk Empire is the freshest and more imposing challenger to Mad Men this year, but people forget that HBO doesn't have a lot of success winning. The Sopranos (the only of HBO's greatly acclaimed series to actually win) only won twice. Several of the years it lost the Sopranos dominated the nominations field. And, shows like Six Feet Under and on the comedy side, Larry Sanders show, collected nominations for years without any success. What I'm going at here is that if it's HBO vs. the field, I'm picking the field everytime until I'm given reason to think otherwise.
Yep. That leaves (Winner) (My Favorite) Mad Men. And, for the first time, I can say I honestly think it deserves it. House, Dexter, Damages, and Breaking Bad all had strong cases for different seasons the past 3 years, but 4th season is my favorite of the series and has some of the strongest episodes of the show. Let me help you out. 2011 - Mad Men. 2012 - Breaking Bad. Come back to me in 2013 and we'll talk.
Biggest Oversite: Justified
I've heard good things about it. HBO proved last year with True Blood sneaking in that voters leave one nomination reserved for an HBO series. The same should go for FX with it's amazing body of work the past decade. Call Justified the most recent 7th nominee from FX.
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