Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Is there any category with a well defined a top tier as this one? These guys are a cut above the rest. Also, thanks to Bryan Cranston's run and going back to some excessive James Spader love, there's a backlog of deserving winners with no hardware to show for it.
(Winner) (My Favorite) Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
"The Suitcase" (AMC)
Hasn't Mad Men won enough? Yes, but none of the actors have and this is the best showcase episode of any actor to boot.
(Dark Horse) Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire)
"A Return to Normalcy" (HBO)
There's a part of me that things voters are going to say "make up calls be damned" and go with the exciting newcomer, welcoming in the second coming of James Gandolfini.
Michael C. Hall (Dexter)
"Teenage Wasteland" (Showtime)
He had a much better chance last year (great season, cancer, etc.). He could still do it, but the window is closing considering how sub-par season 5 was.
Hugh Laurie (House)
"After Hours" (Fox)
Couldn't win last year with his "House flew over the Cuckoo's Nest" mini-movie. Laurie seems destined to always be the bridesmaid, never the bride.
Kyle Chandler (Friday Night Lights)
"Always" (The 101 Network/NBC)
Does a fantastic job. Good, not great submission episode. The problem with him is the strength of what he does is all about withholding. He always says one less thing than you want him to. That doesn't translate well to Emmy votes.
Timothy Olyphant (Justified)
"Reckoning" (FX)
I'm just happy to see him nominated. I think a win, given the competition level and more familiar names is asking a little much.
Biggest Oversite: None
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
(Winner) Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)
"In Sickness" (CBS)
She had this locked up last year. Still don't know how she lost, but...ok, I don't really have a logic to this. At best, this is a makeup call. Even though I don't generally believe the Emmys really do makeup calls, I'm calling it here. She does a fine job on the show too.
(Dark Horse) (My Favorite) Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men)
"The Suitcase" (AMC)
Up till ten seconds ago I had her picked as a virtual lock to win this off the strength of her submission episode which is a force. As last year's win proved, however, it's not always that simple.
Connie Britton (Friday Night Lights)
"Always" (The 101 Network/NBC)
She should have a collection of trophies by now, but that's not the way the world works. Great submission from her. Not likely enough though.
Mireille Enos (The Killing)
"Missing" (AMC)
It's always hard to predict how freshman shows will do. Due to the competion at the top, I think the nomination is her ceiling.
Mariska Hargitay (Law & Order: Special Victims Unit)
"Rescue" (NBC)
I think it's required by law to nominate her. She does good work, but for how underrecognized the show has always been (even when it was fresh), I don't understand how she keeps getting nominations.
Kathy Bates (Harry's Law)
"Innocent Man" (NBC)
Oscar winner on a TV show. Might as well nominate her.
Biggest Oversite: Emmy Rossum (Shameless)
The show fucked itself by labeling it a Drama rather than a Comedy. If you had the choice between Emmy Rossum and Martha Plimpton for that last Lead Comedy Actress spot, who do you think gets a nomination?
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
(Winner) (My Favorite) Steve Carell (The Office)
"Goodbye, Michael" (NBC)
Everything is working in his favor this year. Episode written entirely for him, his celebrity stock has never been higher, and he has that "Susan Lucci"/"How long before he finally wins" thing going on.
(Dark Horse) Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)
"The Agreement Dissection" (CBS)
He won last year. I don't see him as a multiple winner though. He's good. Not that good. In fact, he would be a great multiple winner as a supporting actor like David Hyde Pierce, but he somehow got bumped up to lead actor. I think this will hurt him in the long run. I could be wrong though (I generally am).
Alec Baldwin (30 Rock)
"Respawn" (NBC)
Multiple winners can never be counted out. He had some better episodes he could've submitted. His crazed turn in "Respawn" actually made me rather dislike the episode. I'd be surprised if he got love for that submission.
Louis C.K. (Louie)
"Bully" (FX)
As an unknown entity with the Emmys, I can't put Louie any higher. I'd love to and honestly, he is very strong in that episode (hard not to be as the only regular cast member on the show). I'm holding off for a year at least.
Matt LeBlanc (Episodes)
"Episode 107" (Showtime)
They know this isn't Friends (or for that matter Joey) Matt LeBlanc, right? What's that? They don't. Oh. Nomination makes sense then.
Johnny Galecki (The Big Bang Theory)
"The Benefactor Factor" (CBS)
Enough pixels have been wasted about him not deserving the nomination. It's a light year. He won't win, but that's no reason to not enjoy himself.
Biggest Oversite: Thanks to Modern Family's Supporting nomination agreement, Lead Actor had plenty of room for any suiter.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
(Winner) Laura Linney (The Big C)
"Pilot" (Showtime)
I'm expecting 3 for 3 for the Showtime women. I don't agree with it, but the C is for Cancer. That's tough to beat.
(Dark Horse) (My Favorite) Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation)
"Flu Season" (NBC)
Lead Actress on the best Comedy of TV. I think she has a real chance to win since she is the only part of Parks and Rec. the Emmys are aware of and "Flu Season" is one hell of a good episode for her.
Tina Fey (30 Rock)
"Double-Edged Sword" (NBC)
Former winner. Good episode. Emmys love 30 Rock. Enough said.
Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie)
"Rat Falls" (Showtime)
She won last year. Her stock has fallen considerably though.
Melissa McCarthy (Mike & Molly)
"First Date" (CBS)
Hmm, McCarthy is currently the only Gilmore Girls alum. to ever be nominated. Explain that to me, please.
Martha Plimpton (Raising Hope)
"Say Cheese" (Fox)
I thought she was a supporting actress. Whatever. It's not like she's going to win. You can quote me on that.
Biggest Oversite: Toni Collette (US of Tara)
I've not watch the show, but I hear good things. I'd certainly pick her over Edie Falco.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
(Winner) Laurence Fishburne
Thurgood (HBO)
I got it down to Luther and Thurgood which is a simple equation. Racial Issues vs. Religious Issues. HBO vs. BBC.
(Dark Horse) Idris Elba
Luther (BBC One)
I haven't seen any of these. This guess is as good as any I'm going to have.
Edgar Ramirez
Carlos (Sundance Channel)
If the character you play is also the title of the movie, you stand a pretty good chance.
Greg Kinnear
The Kennedys (ReelzChannel)
This miniseries had a major fall from grace. I think Kinnear's JFK has a slightly better shot at an upset than Pepper's RFK.
Barry Pepper
The Kennedys (ReelzChannel)
Shit, I don't know.
William Hurt
Too Big to Fail (HBO)
The movie didn't really have a lead, so he won't win lead.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
(Winner) Kate Winslet
Mildred Pierce (HBO)
This isn't the Oscars. She's winning.
Diane Lane
Cinema Verite (HBO)
If Cinema Verite was a miniseries as well, I'd probably give Lane the edge.
Elizabeth McGovern
Downton Abbey (PBS)
At least I know who she is.
Jean Marsh
Upstairs, Downstairs (BBC)
Umm, whatever.
Taraji P. Henson
Taken from Me: The Tiffany Rubin Story (Lifetime)
Lifetime Original Movie and this is no "Burning Bed".
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